Whereas Microsoft sweeps the confetti off the ground of its Construct occasion, it could be a very good second to replicate on what it did not say as a lot as what it did. Taking the highlight was AI agent Scout, able to “perceive how work will get executed” and “take motion with no need to be prompted.” The software program behemoth’s main database, SQL Server, barely received a point out.
By itself, it will not be a giant deal, however Microsoft watchers additionally famous that long-time SQL Server champion Rohan Kumar left the corporate in June, whereas Arun Ulag, president of Azure Information, at the moment holds the SQL Server remit. He is additionally liable for the Cloth analytics and AI platform and a portfolio of open supply database companies.
Taken along with the information that Microsoft’s personal phrases and situations permit prospects to take SQL Server licenses to AWS’s RDS database service with out paying twice – due to a function that lets them present their very own SQL Server set up media – the vibe round SQL Server has modified.
“I do not suppose it’s a precedence,” stated Andrew Snodgrass, analysis vice chairman of analyst firm Instructions on Microsoft. “With Kumar leaving, that is grow to be very evident. I believe the world of Ulag, however [SQL Server] isn’t the place his focus is for the longer term. I am afraid Microsoft are going to go away it languishing.”
He stated his issues for Microsoft’s flagship DBMS started when the 2022 model was launched with a “bunch of Azure integration capabilities that nobody was actually asking for.” It ended up being “extra of a advertising launch than one thing that was really engineered to fulfill buyer wants,” Snodgrass stated.
Whereas the introduction of vector search within the 2025 version was welcomed by customers, PostgreSQL, MongoDB, and Oracle customers had been benefiting from the function for years.
“At Construct, Arun Ulag stood up there and talked about all the brand new stuff: highlights of the database information there was HorizonDB, a PostgreSQL database service with a brand new type of scale-out functionality,” Snodgrass stated.
“There was no information about SQL Server, which was beautiful, as a result of SQL Server 2025 simply got here out on the finish of final yr, and in that they put in AI vector search, which I believe is likely one of the biggest additions to SQL Server I’ve seen in ten years.”
However it appears Microsoft is as concerned with its PostgreSQL and different open supply database companies as it’s in its personal SQL Server providing. As long as it drives workloads in Azure, it’s all good for Microsoft, Snodgrass stated.
“It is the form of factor Dad would possibly say: it is not that I am indignant at Microsoft for what they’ve executed to SQL Server, I am simply upset,” he stated.
A Microsoft spokesperson stated: “Clients have actual alternative in how they run SQL Server, and we have designed our licensing to be clear and versatile throughout environments. We’re totally dedicated to SQL Server and persevering with to put money into its innovation, safety, and long-term help so prospects can confidently run their most important workloads and construct what’s subsequent.”
Microsoft first launched SQL Server in 1989 as a 16-bit model for the OS/2 working system, which was a joint undertaking with IBM. Regardless of challenges from Oracle, open supply techniques like PostgreSQL and MySQL, in addition to a string of NoSQL databases similar to MongoDB, it stays extremely fashionable with customers and builders. It’s third behind Oracle and MySQL – forward of PostgreSQL – on the DB-Engines rating, which measures citations, Google knowledge, and job searches. Within the Stack Overflow survey {of professional} builders, it ranks fourth behind PostgreSQL, MySQL, and SQLite, however properly forward of Oracle, which lies in tenth.
Adam Ronthal, vice chairman analyst at Gartner, stated Microsoft’s strategy to SQL Server may be defined by taking a look at two totally different priorities.
First, regardless of the hype across the cloud and AI, Microsoft made round $15 billion in income from the on-prem DBMS market, largely from SQL Server. It is second when it comes to market share (33 %) solely to Oracle, which holds almost 40 % of the on-prem DBMS market.
“When you take a look at Microsoft’s progress within the on-prem enterprise in 2025, they had been rising round 8 %, so Microsoft continues to have a enterprise within the on-prem that’s rising in excessive single digits,” he stated.
There isn’t a method that Microsoft will stroll away from that form of income, Ronthal advised The Register.
In the meantime, SQL Server prospects signify a very good alternative for Microsoft to transform customers to Azure SQL, and the SQL database in Cloth, its knowledge analytics setting, as they’re constructed on a constant database engine. Microsoft needs folks to see that Azure offers a seamless path to construct and scale AI functions with deeply built-in knowledge companies, safety, and governance.
Nonetheless, Ronthal added that particular compatibility would rely on the implementation of T-SQL within the software customers need to transfer.
“As we go full into managed companies, I haven’t got full management over the underlying working system, and I may not have the identical stage of management over the configuration of the database itself.”
For business, off-the-shelf software program, the benefit of migration would rely on the seller certification, he stated.
In addition to eager to defend its on-prem SQL Server income, Microsoft additionally sees that AI and cloud are driving the market.
Within the cloud, the market is dominated by a household of databases primarily based on PostgreSQL or intently associated to the open supply database.
“The de facto API for relational databases has emerged to be Postgres proper now, and so we see many distributors implement wire from suitable Postgres APIs, which offers finish customers a hedge in opposition to lock-in,” Ronthal stated.
A string of startups have tried to seize this market, together with Cockroach Labs, Yugabyte, and pgEdge, all of which supply distributed capabilities and ranging compatibility with PostgreSQL. Microsoft can’t ignore this improvement, therefore its funding in HorizonDB, its personal distributed PostgreSQL. Microsoft additionally has the DBaaS providing, Azure Database for PostgreSQL.
In addition to defending the rising on-prem database market, Microsoft is making an attempt to seize the upper progress in cloud databases and meet up with AWS.
As such, it’s incorporating operational databases underneath the Cloth umbrella, together with NoSQL database Cosmos, Azure SQL, and Postgres capabilities. “If we take a look at the drivers of the market proper now, that are cloud and AI – Cloth is a core part of AI – then the expansion for Microsoft is basically going to be pushed by Cloth adoption, the place they’re placing an amazing quantity of focus and energy,” Ronthal stated.
Nonetheless, Microsoft has deep sufficient pockets when it comes to engineering finances to afford to battle it out on each fronts. In that sense, SQL Server workloads that find yourself on AWS nonetheless make sense.
“Microsoft has some rationalization to do within the portfolio, as a result of there are a number of methods to run SQL Server,” Ronthal stated. “You’ve got received Azure SQL, managed cases, SQL Server in VMs. These present barely totally different ranges of compatibility with what you may be doing within the on-prem world, and proper now, the truth that there are a number of choices truly makes it tough for finish customers to determine what to do. I’d like to see Microsoft make it extra unified and simpler for folks to devour.”
Within the cloud DBMS market, AWS has the higher hand by a substantial margin. In 2025, AWS made about $37 billion in cloud DBMS income, in keeping with Gartner, whereas Microsoft made about $18.3 billion.
If a SQL Server buyer can leverage an present funding in Microsoft and convey it to AWS, Microsoft loses that enterprise for Azure, “however on the plus facet, they do not lose a SQL Server buyer, and that is in all probability extra vital,” Ronthal stated.
Of the main distributors – Oracle, IBM, Microsoft, and SAP – solely Microsoft has grown their market share within the final 15 years, Ronthal identified. Microsoft has proved able to driving out adjustments out there with each its cloud companies and SQL Server technique. Whether or not that is additionally good for SQL Server prospects may be up for debate, however since help for the 2025 model ends in 2036, they’ve loads of time to plan. ®
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