Satellite phone dreams orbit reality as direct-to-cell usage set to underwhelm

Networks

Good know-how, disgrace in regards to the worth and the indoor blackouts

Cell telcos are linking up with satellite tv for pc operators to increase protection past their cell towers attain, however precise utilization of the know-how might fall in need of trade expectations. 

That is the view of Juniper Analysis, which forecasts month-to-month energetic direct-to-cell (D2C) customers will develop from 17.4 million in 2026 to 133 million by 2031.

Sturdy progress, however Juniper warns real-world adoption will possible disappoint: D2C is inherently area of interest, kicking in solely when terrestrial sign fails, and it does nothing to unravel poor indoor protection – a grievance that frustrates customers day-to-day. 

“Shopper demand for D2C is at the moment concentrated to particular journeys and journey, comparable to to nationwide parks and nature reserves, fairly than throughout on a regular basis utilization of cell companies,” claimed senior analysis analyst Alex Webb.

Community intelligence biz Ookla reported a couple of months again that the number of D2C connections rose practically 25 % between July 2025 and March 2026.

As Reg readers know, D2C lets unmodified smartphones join on to low Earth orbit satellites, no specialist {hardware} required. Satellite tv for pc corporations ally with cell community operators, borrowing their spectrum to cowl areas past cell vary, primarily like putting a cell tower in space. 

T-Cell within the US led the best way, providing a D2C functionality by way of SpaceX’s Starlink constellation for roughly a year, and dangling it an an add-on to lure subscribers from rival networks.

America is fertile floor for D2C given how shortly sign drops off exterior main city facilities. Australia is equally well-suited. Europe, the place terrestrial networks cowl a lot of the continent, was lengthy thought-about a weaker prospect, although this hasn’t deterred operators. Virgin Media O2 has launched its O2 Satellite tv for pc service within the UK, whereas VodafoneThree was getting ready clients for trials this summer season.

Juniper predicts the Far East and China would be the greatest marketplace for satellite tv for pc telephone companies, adopted by India, with Africa, North America, Latin America and West Europe sharing smaller, roughly equal slices.

Dense city settings current a separate downside D2C cannot repair. Thick partitions, underground areas and bodily obstacles routinely kill sign in cites and no quantity of orbital infrastructure adjustments that, Webb reported. 

Pricing stays one other drag on adoption. The GSMA beforehand discovered 40 % of telephone subscribers wouldn’t pay anything extra for satellite capability, and one other 32 % would stretch to a 5 % premium.

For now, most D2C companies are restricted to textual content messaging and emergency companies calls, with voice and full knowledge nonetheless to come back. Vodafone demonstrated the first mobile video call using a satellite connection utilizing commonplace 4G/5G handsets in early 2025, displaying it’s technically attainable.

The query is when and whether or not sufficient customers will care. ®