The last few years have not been kind to the DIY PC industry. While system sales have boomed throughout the pandemic, the twin impacts of cryptocurrency mining and COVID-19 have made AMD and Nvidia GPUs very difficult to find for reasonable prices.
There is some early evidence that things may be improving. Prices remain elevated above the low point they hit around July 4th 2021, but they are moving in the right direction. According to 3DCenter’s latest data, availability has improved and prices have dropped. This shift appears related to a recent sharp decline in Ethereum prices, as shown in the graph below:
Image by 3DCenter.org
THG has some supplementary information showing that eBay GPU sales fell in January compared to December, but that hasn’t stopped prices from moving downward. They note that the RX 6600 XT has dropped 11.6 percent to $518.66. MSRP on the Radeon RX 6600 XT is $329. THG reports this as the best deal of 2022 thus far, which really tells you something about how bad prices are right now.
There may be more at work than just crypto demand. Prices for the Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5 have also dropped by roughly $100 according to the Verge. Neither of these systems can be used for mining, so price declines may reflect decreased Q1 demand compared to Q4.
The DIY Market Needs Affordable AMD, Nvidia GPUs
Not Pictured: Affordability. Default GPU landing page by Newegg, 1/24/2022.
High retail prices on graphics cards won’t kill PC gaming, but they will make it a much more expensive hobby. Boutique gaming desktops and laptops are quite expensive. In the past, it has sometimes been possible to buy and upgrade a basic box from Dell or HP. Right now, the high retail price of GPUs makes even this a poor option compared to buying an entire pre-built system. Right now, AMD’s APUs represent the most cost-effective gaming solution most DIY enthusiasts can buy. If prices don’t come down, some DIY PC gamers will eventually start looking elsewhere, whether that means a streaming service, pre-built boutique, or console purchase.
One additional piece of good news related to GPU availability: Ajinomoto build-up film is getting easier to find. Ajinomoto build-up film is an essential component of the chip manufacturing process. DigiTimes notes that ABF shortages are expected to be greatly reduced as new capacity comes online in H2 2022. This should have a further positive impact on GPU prices.
It could still take months for GPU prices to stabilize, especially if crypto prices rise again. AMD and Nvidia have generally guided towards improved availability in the back half of the year, but it may be 2023 or later before prices return to “normal.”
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