Natural search visitors is down simply 2.5% yr over yr — nowhere close to the 25% to 60% drops usually cited in business commentary. That’s one massive takeaway from a brand new large-scale evaluation by Graphite utilizing Similarweb information from greater than 40,000 of the biggest U.S. web sites.
This discovering challenges the concept generative AI instruments like ChatGPT are quickly changing conventional search and gutting website positioning.
What’s taking place. Surveys, anecdotes, and case research have fueled claims that natural visitors has collapsed and enormous language fashions are pulling demand away from serps. Graphite’s information tells a distinct story.
- Utilizing Similarweb go to information, the examine in contrast natural search visitors to the highest 40,000 U.S. websites from February to December 2024 and January to November 2025. The consequence was a modest decline, not a dramatic one.
- Google’s statements help this view. In August 2025, the corporate mentioned complete natural click on quantity from Google Search was “comparatively secure yr over yr.”
By the numbers. Visitors developments differ by website measurement. The biggest websites, together with the highest 10, grew natural visitors by about 1.6%. Declines have been concentrated amongst mid-sized publishers ranked roughly between the highest 100 and 10,000.
- Natural website positioning visitors: -2.5% YoY
- Search engine visitors total (2025): +0.4%
- Google visitors (2025): +0.8%
- Natural vs. paid clicks: ~90% natural, ~10% adverts
- AI Overview CTR affect: -35% when current
- AI Overview prevalence: ~30% of SERPs
AI Overviews: affect, not collapse. AI Overviews do scale back click-through charges once they seem, however their attain is smaller than many assume.
- AI Overviews seem in about 30% of queries, principally informational ones.
- Industrial and transactional key phrases are far much less affected.
Google adverts aren’t “stealing” natural clicks. One other widespread declare is that Google is shifting visitors from natural outcomes to paid adverts. The info exhibits solely a modest change.
- The share of clicks going to adverts rose by about two proportion factors.
- Natural outcomes nonetheless generate roughly 10 instances extra clicks than paid placements.
Why we care. website positioning continues to be an enormous channel. AI is altering how outcomes seem and the way customers work together with data, however demand for search hasn’t collapsed. The actual shift is that website positioning is fragmenting. There are extra SERP options, extra AI-driven solutions, and extra competitors for fewer clicks on informational queries. Technique now issues greater than ever.
In regards to the information. The evaluation makes use of Similarweb visitors estimates for greater than 40,000 of the biggest U.S. web sites. These estimates mix opt-in consumer panels, ISP and cell provider information, public net indicators, and direct measurement from taking part websites to mannequin visits and visitors sources at scale. To validate accuracy, Graphite in contrast Similarweb developments with first-party Google Search Console and Google Analytics information throughout a number of websites and located a median correlation of 0.86.
The evaluation. Debunking The Myth That Search Is Dying
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