I recently wrote about an unconfirmed Google algorithm replace that rolled out in mid-January 2026, which negatively impacted the natural search visibility of dozens of main manufacturers. For a lot of the impacted websites I analyzed, the influence was disproportionately focused to the corporate’s weblog, or one other folder containing informational articles and assets.
That very same natural trajectory has continued into mid-February for all the subfolders I analyzed, utilizing the Sistrix U.S. Visibility Index:
Zooming out, that is what the drops appear like if you have a look at the visibility tendencies throughout the entire domains, not simply the blogs:
Right here is one other instance of the visibility influence on the corporate weblog for the largest firm within the record (by way of each ARR and natural visibility):
And that is what the influence seems like if you have a look at the corporate’s full area’s visibility in natural search:
For sure, these current natural visibility drops have been excessive, relative to the websites’ total web optimization trajectories over the previous few years. Drilling down into 11 of the websites that noticed excessive declines over the past month, I needed to see if this new knowledge might assist reply one other query:
Do drops in Google natural search visibility coincide with comparable drops in AI search citations?
My working speculation is that these drops are now not simply remoted to conventional search. As an alternative, I think we’ll discover that, for many LLMs, AI search quotation tendencies mirror what occurs in Google’s natural search outcomes, for 2 causes:
1. The Direct Pipeline: Google’s AI Ecosystem
For Google’s personal AI merchandise – AI Mode and Gemini – the correlation needs to be strongest. Presumably, Google is utilizing its personal index and top-ranking search outcomes to formulate AI search responses; due to this fact, dropping in natural rankings ought to logically trigger these pages to be cited and referenced much less steadily in generative solutions.
2. The Downstream Results: Third-Occasion LLMs (ChatGPT & Perplexity)
The hyperlink between Google natural rankings and third-party LLMs like ChatGPT and Perplexity is extra nuanced, as we don’t know precisely which engines like google these LLMs are surfacing for internet search.
Whereas there’s a growing body of evidence (and industry reporting) suggesting that ChatGPT probably scrapes Google throughout stay internet searches, we nonetheless technically lack official affirmation from the supply. Perplexity, alternatively, is currently believed to utilize the Brave Search API as a core a part of its retrieval course of, alongside its personal specialised “PerplexityBot” crawler.
To check this out, I needed to drill down into the subfolders that noticed substantial visibility drops on Google in current weeks, to see whether or not the development line for AI search citations adopted go well with.
To begin, I honed in on an inventory of 11 websites whose subfolders noticed substantial natural visitors drops between January 20, 2026 and February 16, 2026.
I used the Ahrefs MCP server with Claude Cowork to tug in estimated international month-to-month natural visitors numbers for every path (subfolder) within the record. As a result of a lot of the visitors declines began round January 21, 2026, I pulled the projected month-to-month natural numbers for January 20, 2026 and the latest date, February 16, 2026.
I additionally redacted the location names, leaving the title of the subfolder and a quick, anonymized abstract concerning the firm sort and the subfolder’s goal:
These subfolders skilled wherever from a -5.7% to -53.1% drop in estimated month-to-month natural search visitors since January twentieth, 2026.
Utilizing Ahrefs Model Radar, you’ll be able to drill all the way down to see the variety of AI search citations {that a} given subfolder has obtained throughout varied LLMs over time. For instance, right here is the ChatGPT quotation development line for the primary subfolder listed within the above desk (U.S. knowledge):
That is the corresponding chart displaying the natural visitors development for this identical subfolder, which started dropping round January 21, 2026:
I used the Ahrefs MCP server with Claude Cowork to tug international visitors and quotation knowledge, and to investigate this identical sample for 11 of the subfolders that noticed huge drops.
Be aware on methodology: Whereas 11 subfolders are a small pattern measurement, I used to be particularly searching for a “clear” knowledge set – subfolders experiencing the same algorithmic demotion on Google throughout the unconfirmed January 2026 replace. By narrowing the scope, I might higher isolate whether or not a lack of conventional search visibility interprets straight right into a quotation drop in AI search.
Under are the high-level summaries of how natural visitors and quotation counts modified throughout Google and varied LLMs, together with AI Mode, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Gemini:
Findings:
- The info exhibits a broad decline in each web optimization visitors & AI search citations: Each subfolder within the research (11 of 11) skilled a drop in each Google natural visitors and whole AI search citations, with a major common quotation decline of -22.5%.
- Google’s AI Mode (-23.8%) and ChatGPT (-27.8%) confirmed essentially the most extreme declines, intently mirroring the -26.7% common drop in natural visitors.
- Whereas Gemini additionally noticed broad declines (10 of 11 websites), Perplexity proved to be essentially the most resilient, with solely 4 of the 11 websites seeing a drop and a a lot milder common change of -2.9%.
- This knowledge helps the idea that Perplexity is primarily utilizing non-Google search surfaces to generate its responses.
Trying on the modifications in estimated natural visitors for every subfolder in comparison with whole AI search citations between January 20 and February 16, 2026, the correlation is evident: Important losses in natural search visibility are virtually universally mirrored by a corresponding decline in AI search citations.
Drilling down into particular LLMs, together with Google’s AI Mode, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Gemini, exhibits how the decline was almost common for many platforms, whereas Perplexity steadily displayed a major divergence, displaying constructive quotation progress for almost all of the subfolders regardless of their natural visitors losses.
ChatGPT (inexperienced) constantly exhibits the deepest declines throughout virtually each subfolder – typically exceeding AI Mode and Gemini. That is intriguing as a result of ChatGPT isn’t a Google product, but it seems extra delicate to those natural rating shifts than Google’s personal Gemini.
This seems to be one other clue that ChatGPT is reliant on Google’s search index throughout retrieval.
AI Mode and Gemini have a tendency to maneuver in the identical route however not the identical magnitude. Regardless of each being Google merchandise, AI Mode declines are usually steeper than Gemini’s. This might recommend they weight or supply from Google’s natural index in a different way – maybe AI Mode is extra tightly coupled to stay SERP rankings whereas Gemini attracts from a broader or cached data base.
The few websites the place Perplexity did decline (e.g., Web site J, Web site Ok) are additionally those displaying comparatively smaller natural drops. So even within the circumstances the place Perplexity tracked downward, it doesn’t look like correlated with the severity of the Google natural loss – additional proof that Perplexity is probably going pulling from a distinct retrieval pipeline.
The under desk exhibits all of the natural search vs. AI search quotation knowledge in a single place:
The desk reveals a transparent sample: each subfolder that misplaced natural visibility on Google additionally noticed a decline in whole AI search citations, with a median drop of -22.5% throughout all LLMs.
ChatGPT was essentially the most severely impacted platform, with quotation declines reaching as excessive as -42.3% (Web site E) and exceeding -34% for 5 of the eleven subfolders – typically surpassing even the natural visitors loss itself.
Google’s AI Mode adopted the same trajectory, whereas Gemini confirmed extra average declines throughout the board.
Probably the most notable outlier is Perplexity, which really confirmed quotation progress for 7 of the 11 subfolders, reinforcing the idea that it retrieves from a non-Google search index.
Maybe essentially the most attention-grabbing discovering is that ChatGPT – a non-Google product – seems extra tightly coupled to Google’s natural rankings than Google’s personal Gemini, suggesting that ChatGPT’s internet retrieval pipeline is closely depending on Google’s search outcomes.
One suggestion I’ve been making since AI search entered the web optimization dialog is that you shouldn’t spend money on AEO/GEO techniques that could possibly be detrimental to web optimization efficiency. For instance, utilizing hidden immediate injections, cloaking, or self-promotional listicles (techniques that some have advocated for to spice up AI search visibility) is likely to be quickly useful for AI search, however might trigger huge complications with Google and Bing’s natural search rating algorithms down the road.
Now, we’ve got much more proof that AI search is basically linked to web optimization efficiency: Should you drop in natural search, you’ll be able to probably anticipate a corresponding drop in citations not solely from Google’s personal AI search merchandise, however from different LLMs like ChatGPT, which seem to even be closely reliant on Google’s search outcomes.
The one notable exception is Perplexity, which confirmed quotation progress for almost all of subfolders hit by the current algorithm replace. That stated, it’s essential to weigh this in opposition to the dimensions of visitors and LLM utilization at stake. In line with a recent article by Similarweb, ChatGPT obtained 5.8 billion internet visits in August 2025, in comparison with 148.2 million for Perplexity.
So as to add to this, if you consider Google’s natural search visitors – which nonetheless dwarfs all of the AI search platforms mixed – the overwhelming majority of your search-driven visibility throughout each engines like google and AI chatbots continues to be flowing by a pipeline the place Google’s rankings dictate the end result.
For the previous yr, the web optimization business has been asking how intently traditional SEO and AEO/GEO are actually tied collectively. I feel this knowledge helps reply that query: Not solely is a robust web optimization basis crucial for AI search visibility, however techniques that damage your natural rankings can have a cascading destructive influence in your AI search citations as properly. In different phrases, the quickest option to lose visibility in AI search is likely to be to lose it in Google first.
Extra Assets:
This submit was initially revealed on Lily Ray NYC Substack.
Featured Picture: PeopleImages/Shutterstock
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