Pablo Perez and Jesús Martín Calvo from Google’s Advertising Analysis & Insights workforce right now printed an in depth evaluation difficult typical knowledge about promoting frequency. The publication dissects contradictions in how entrepreneurs focus on optimum publicity ranges and argues that elementary client conduct helps maximizing attain over repeated contacts.
The twentieth version of Quantified Nation, printed on quantifiednation.com, represents what the authors describe as their “most sincere opinion” on a topic producing apparently contradicting insights throughout the advertising measurement group. Perez at the moment serves as Google Advertising Insights for EMEA, based mostly in Madrid, whereas Martín Calvo works alongside him in advertising measurement analysis.
“The controversy on ‘optimum frequency’ has been fixed in media circles over the many years,” the researchers wrote. “Everybody has some type of opinion, some corporations have well-established traditions and guidelines of thumb, usually with obscure or untraceable origins.”
Definitional confusion drives contradictions
The evaluation identifies imprecise terminology as a main supply of confusion. Attain and frequency calculations rely upon express conventions relating to time dimensions and channel definitions. Weekly calculations produce completely different stability factors than month-to-month or campaign-level measurements. Cross-channel measurement stays tough, resulting in remoted or aggregated reporting that obscures true deduplicated attain.
“Making these express and clear is our first suggestion,” the researchers said.
The time period “optimum” requires equal precision. Entrepreneurs use the idea to imply maximizing return on funding for given spend, maximizing topline income by way of spend modifications, attaining measurable marketing campaign influence, or channel-specific targets. Enterprise conversations not often specify which optimization goal applies.
“A superb analyst is the one which helps the enterprise ask the fitting questions,” the publication notes.
Experiences advocating larger frequencies usually undertake effectiveness stances slightly than effectivity views. When promoting channels can take in vital funding at marginal returns exceeding common cross-channel returns, larger frequency turns into a consequence of correct funding ranges slightly than an optimization goal.
The researchers distinguish between macro observations from testing or marketing mix modeling and particular person client conduct. Any macro-level perception inconsistent with client conduct ought to face scrutiny except community results or emergent behaviors present explanations.
First influence delivers most worth
The publication employs a thought experiment assuming homogeneous customers with equal model predisposition and media consumption patterns. After delivering a primary promoting contact, the basic query turns into whether or not the second contact ought to attain the identical particular person or a brand new particular person.
“From the info we now have seen in our careers, information collected doing correct model raise meta-analysis whereas controlling all of the variables, the optimum is to ship the message to a brand new particular person,” the researchers wrote.
The evaluation challenges readers to think about excessive eventualities. Common settlement exists that 100 contacts to 1 particular person produces worse outcomes than one contact to 100 folks. The gray space entails evaluating distributions like 20 contacts to 5 folks, 5 contacts to twenty folks, or one contact to 100 folks.
Any reply favoring concentrated publicity implies tipping factors in client choices. The researchers reject this mannequin. “What each promoting influence does is to extend the possibilities of a purchase order. There isn’t any tipping level, however slightly an accumulation of upper chance as we increment the frequency.”
This results in a elementary conclusion: the primary influence delivers one of the best worth, and perfect eventualities maximize first-time impacts over any different.
Three phenomena may invalidate this mannequin. Customers possess completely different model predispositions, making some folks extra priceless to succeed in than others by way of segmentation-affinity results and heterogeneous product distribution. Media consumption patterns introduce value effectivity concerns. Promoting supply entails frictions together with simultaneous impacts, imperfect details about screen-side people, and gaps between planning and execution.
“All these components are true and that is what justifies the necessity for sophistication in planning,” the researchers acknowledged. “However they can not be above the basic fact that the first influence is one of the best.”
YouTube information helps attain precedence
Google’s YouTube Brand Lift database supplies what the researchers describe because the world’s greatest proof for frequency questions. The database accommodates huge samples per experiment, correct test-control designs, constant key efficiency indicators throughout hundreds of circumstances, and metadata on execution ranges.
Google printed information from this database in 2017, which the researchers state stays legitimate. The evaluation reveals indexes of 1.5 to 1.8 for second impacts, constantly under the 2x threshold that will point out equal worth to first impacts.
“The primary influence is one of the best, the second delivers at all times much less. Similar goes with the next ones,” the publication states.
This high-quality information proves the patron conduct mannequin described earlier. Frequency of three produces larger outcomes than frequency of 1, however optimization requires evaluating alternate options slightly than observing absolute efficiency.
The obvious paradox resolves by way of media planning realities. Constructing attain and frequency happens concurrently slightly than as discrete selections. Planning capabilities together with frequency capping, sensible tv insertion scheduling, and platform combos decide the stability achieved.
Companies carry out higher with frequency of three in underinvested channels with sturdy return on funding in comparison with putting funds in channels with decrease returns. This displays correct channel funding ranges slightly than frequency optimization. “Don’t let the technical limitations of aggregated fashions (comparable to MMM) be inconsistent with actual client behaviour,” the researchers cautioned.
S-curves mirror measurement limitations
The evaluation argues that S-shaped response curves contradict each client conduct fashions and Model Raise information. Easy explanations usually show right. Aggregated fashions like marketing mix modeling struggle to measure low execution ranges correctly slightly than requiring complicated client conduct assumptions.
“Most frequently the S-curve is defined as ‘first you do not see numerous influence as a result of there’s not sufficient customers impacted by the funding, you then see it ramp up, finally there’s diminishing returns,'” the publication states. “Straightforward to grasp however not true to actuality: the sooner levels of the media funding do ship worth too – really it is doubtless that they ship essentially the most worth. It is simply that we won’t correctly measure due to the low signal-to-noise ratio.”
Advertising combine fashions usually incorporate Hill capabilities on whole impacts or influence subsets. The Meridian framework from Google makes use of linear assumptions on attain with Hill capabilities for frequency. Hill capabilities comprise two parameters, with S parameters above one indicating S-curve conduct and values under one producing diminishing returns curves.
“It’s our view that values
Calibration proposal utilizing Model Raise priors
Trendy measurement combines information sources and strategies to supply optimum solutions. Calibration of marketing mix models using A/B test information represents established apply.
The publication proposes incorporating Model Raise outcomes of frequency by stage as priors to Meridian mannequin parameters. “Looks like a great way ahead,” the researchers famous.
This strategy would align mannequin outputs with real-world client response patterns documented in managed experiments. The Google Meridian framework obtained vital updates in September 2025, together with channel-level contribution priors permitting customers to information fashions with enterprise information.
The researchers reference a number of measurement developments. The IPA Effectiveness Awards 2026 opened for entries with early registration closing January 9. Charlie Ebdy from Omnicom Media Group UK famous that “the promoting business’s shift towards digital media has outpaced its potential to show effectiveness.”
Cross-media measurement initiatives proceed increasing. Google Advertisements launched Cross-Media Reach measurement in June 2024, offering deduplicated attain and frequency insights throughout YouTube and conventional tv. Amazon launched frequency capping features with cross-campaign attain measurement on December 23, 2024.
Trade analyst forecasts spotlight incrementality and a focus as metrics to look at. The shift away from impression-based measurement towards proving enterprise influence resonates with the frequency dialogue. “Because the business matures, anticipate extra scrutiny on whether or not these additional impressions really drive incremental worth,” Advert Age reported.
The publication notes growing Google Developments curiosity in Panettone, the Italian candy bread export showing more and more on cabinets. “Have we reached ‘peak Panettone’ but? Apparently not: yet one more yr with report curiosity on this product.”
Recency planning legacy
The researchers focus on Erwin Ephron, whose 1995 Recency Planning idea essentially challenged frequency threshold obsessions earlier than his 2014 loss of life. Typical knowledge on the time, rooted in Herbert Krugman’s three-hit concept from the Seventies, held that buyers wanted a number of exposures earlier than promoting may work.
Ephron argued that promoting works by reminding folks already available in the market. Since understanding when customers will probably be prepared to purchase proves unimaginable, one of the best technique maintains steady presence maximizing the chance of reaching somebody on the proper second. Attain, not frequency, needs to be the precedence.
“One publicity shouldn’t be a waste. It is all you should remind an individual who is able to hear,” Ephron said in his 1997 paper.
The evaluation notes the irony that three many years later, with vastly extra information and computing energy, the business continues combating the identical battle Ephron gained on paper.
The publication features a footnote explaining their use of the time period “custom” to explain methods of doing embedded in organizations, accepted with out problem, and laborious to trace in origin. “They’re a social consensus and a approach of working.”
A second footnote acknowledges one potential emergent conduct: multiplier advantages from seeing the identical marketing campaign with iconic property and constant concepts throughout completely different media. Nevertheless, the researchers word this impact lacks correct individual-level measurement past typical advertising combine mannequin statistics on synergies. These inherently signify cross-channel conversations, whereas frequency already presents ample complexity in single-channel contexts.
Trade measurement developments
The publication seems amid vital measurement infrastructure evolution. AudienceProject appointed Bruno Furnari as Chief Product & Know-how Officer on October 27, 2025, as the corporate advances unbiased cross-media measurement capabilities.
Media fragmentation demands new budget allocation strategies as conventional channel loyalty diminishes. Efficient model constructing requires using a number of channels together with linear tv, linked tv, on-line video, social media, and open internet platforms.
Comscore expanded its Cross-Platform Marketing campaign Outcomes to incorporate streaming audio measurement and enhanced Meta reporting on December 15, 2025. The platform goals to offer advertisers with complete marketing campaign measurement throughout platforms representing trendy client media engagement.
The promoting measurement ecosystem continues consolidating by way of partnerships addressing fragmentation. Médiamétrie partnered with AudienceProject in September 2025 to develop a Cross-Media Video promoting measurement resolution concentrating on first quarter 2026 launch.
Technical specs for the answer embody correct evaluation of deduplicated marketing campaign attain and frequency throughout a number of channels, encompassing main platforms, social media, linked tv, and on-line video.
Timeline
Abstract
Who: Pablo Perez, Google Advertising Insights for EMEA, and Jesús Martín Calvo, each from Google’s Advertising Analysis & Insights workforce based mostly in Madrid.
What: Printed complete evaluation of promoting frequency in Quantified Nation version 20, difficult business assumptions about optimum publicity ranges and arguing that first promoting impacts ship best worth. The researchers suggest calibrating advertising combine fashions with YouTube Model Raise information as priors to align with precise client conduct.
When: Printed on February 3, 2026, representing three many years after Erwin Ephron’s Recency Planning idea and 9 years after Google printed YouTube Model Raise database findings.
The place: Printed on quantifiednation.com and promoted by way of LinkedIn by Pablo Perez, reaching advertising measurement professionals globally. The evaluation attracts on Google’s YouTube Model Raise database containing hundreds of experiments with correct test-control designs.
Why: Addresses persistent confusion in advertising circles about optimum frequency, the place apparently contradicting claims and unclear terminology create issue seeing a transparent image. The researchers argue that imprecise language, mixing of ideas, and technical limitations of measurement instruments obscure elementary truths about client conduct. The publication issues as a result of many aggregated fashions produce S-curves inconsistent with actual client response patterns, probably resulting in suboptimal media funding choices. The evaluation supplies measurement practitioners with a framework for occupied with frequency that aligns macro-level optimization with particular person client conduct, proposing sensible calibration approaches for contemporary advertising combine modeling instruments.
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