Tom Goodwin: I was wrong about influencers. Here’s what I’ve learned about working with them.

It’s really considerably simpler to say what’s going to occur than when, and we routinely assume every thing modifications far, far, far sooner than it actually does.

It’s human nature: we’re wired to obsess over something that strikes, as a result of what strikes can kill us.

I assumed self-checkout was absurd. I assumed everybody would’ve given up on Fb by now. I assumed individuals would use the web to develop into much less ignorant. However extra boringly, I assumed influencer advertising was a street to nowhere.

It at all times appeared apparent to me that the second it grew to become clear you’d paid somebody to advertise one thing, the entire style of cheaply made, badly framed “content material” shared with a plethora of largely faux bot-farm clickers would appear costly.

Nicely, it seems I used to be improper – for just a few causes.

First, advertisements don’t should look good. What I’ll name shit, others name genuine.

Second, it really works. Audiences actually love these things – or they comprehend it’s all pay-to-play and don’t care, or they’ve been tricked. Both method, in lots of (however in no way all) classes, particularly visible and trivial ones, influencer advertising actually works.

Third, and most telling: shoppers are misplaced on the place to spend cash.

Your common consumer as we speak faces one thing like Brewster’s Thousands and thousands, the place the objective is desperately making an attempt to spend the media finances, figuring out it’s not that straightforward. TV and radio are lifeless, digital is fraud or feeding a duopoly, print is extra lifeless, outside has no attain. The place else is the cash going to go if to not influencers and their halo LED lights? The cash has to go someplace.

A lot in order that I make a barely embarrassing sum of money being an influencer myself, cranking out cringeworthy promo materials that certainly appears sarcastic if not below duress.

Now that I’ve spent about 12 years on each side of the transaction, I assumed I’d provide some ideas.

All of it appears a bit mysterious, however shoppers are literally shopping for one in every of three issues. Which one they purchase ought to drastically influence how they measure success, how they select the particular person, and the way they construct the technique.

I like to consider it when it comes to the three C’s:

Content material. Some individuals assume they’re shopping for content material. They see the influencer as an inexpensive method to produce efficient promoting or advertising. The worth is in what the particular person makes – both as a result of they’re proficient or wildly artistic and ship standout work. Content material is probably the most commoditized, best to faux, and infrequently measured poorly. It’s the lowest-value play long-term. 

Neighborhood. Others assume they’re shopping for entry to an viewers. It’s promoting as a media play, not as content material. The hope is that the particular person has sufficient actual distribution that something they submit reaches lots of real individuals at a smart value – and people individuals are an excellent goal. Neighborhood provides focusing on and loyalty, due to this fact higher for mid-funnel or retention. Faux engagement, bots, or mismatched audiences waste spend.

Credibility. For me, the worth has at all times been about credibility. It’s the concept that the particular person is successfully endorsing what you make. The marketing campaign’s price doesn’t come from distribution or creation, however from the signaling that this particular person was keen to work with you. That signaling can take varieties:

• They’re a tastemaker with authority, and other people consider they solely get behind stuff they deem good.
• They’re clearly well-known (and costly), so associating with them indicators you have got cash to burn, social proof, and confidence in your future. Credibility is the highest-leverage play (signaling, belief switch, halo impact). It’s the toughest to earn however compounds over time by way of repeat partnerships. However there’s danger of misalignment (scandals, over-endorsing), dilution in the event that they companion with everybody, or perceived inauthenticity if it’s too transactional.

More and more, there’s a fourth C: Commerce.

Slowly however certainly — and much more slowly than most predicted—social media is turning into social promoting. Many manufacturers in 2026 are more and more shopping for direct efficiency, particularly by means of affiliate hyperlinks, shoppable posts, TikTok Store integrations, or trackable gross sales.

So subsequent time you’re allocating influencer finances, ask your self one query first: Are we shopping for junk content material, rented attain, borrowed belief… or precise income? The sincere reply modifications every thing.

You may learn extra from The Drum’s Predictions occasion here.