A contentious debate about promoting effectiveness has erupted throughout skilled networks following the January 8 publication of analysis suggesting the trendy media panorama poses unprecedented challenges to model constructing. The Institute of Practitioners in Promoting launched analysis from Omnicom Media Group UK’s Chief Strategy Officer Charlie Ebdy arguing that distraction, litter, and algorithmic biases have created structural limitations to marketing campaign efficiency that entrepreneurs can’t management by execution alone.
The analysis, revealed on the IPA web site beneath the title Solely the paranoid survive: rethinking effectiveness in 2026, introduces the idea of promoting “secular stagnation”—borrowing terminology from depression-era economics to explain environmental elements that cap potential returns no matter strategic high quality. Ebdy’s central thesis contends that media consumption patterns because the mid-2010s have essentially altered the circumstances beneath which promoting operates, creating what he characterizes as a panorama “more and more and inherently hostile to promoting effectiveness.”
Advertising and marketing professionals responding to the evaluation cut up sharply on whether or not structural challenges justify rethinking basic approaches or whether or not the framing obscures extra urgent points. The talk unfolded primarily by LinkedIn discussions following Ebdy’s January 8 post and parallel conversations on X, the place trade figures Tom Goodwin and Brian O’Kelley provided competing views on efficiency advertising, model funding, and the position of automation in promoting technique.
Distraction, litter, and algorithmic bias
Ebdy’s evaluation identifies three interconnected environmental shifts that he argues have degraded promoting effectiveness at a inhabitants stage. First, smartphone adoption because the mid-2010s has layered incremental media consumption onto present habits moderately than substituting for different actions, in keeping with Ofcom knowledge cited within the analysis. The sample creates concurrent promoting publicity throughout a number of platforms whereas rising total advert load as a result of digital platforms serve extra promoting per minute of consumption than conventional media.
Second, the proliferation of media touchpoints and promoting alternatives has cluttered consumption experiences each inside platforms and throughout the broader media atmosphere. The mix of simultaneous platform utilization and better per-minute promoting quantity means particular person promoting exposures occupy progressively smaller fractions of any individual’s complete media time, doubtlessly diluting share-of-voice results and making psychological availability dearer to safe.
Third, algorithmic suggestion programs that prioritize historic consumption patterns or habits of comparable customers create what Ebdy characterizes as a “Matthew Impact” favoring established manufacturers. Analysis from Paul Dyson’s 2013 Prime 10 Drivers of Profitability evaluation confirmed elevated promoting returns concentrated among the many largest advertisers, whereas cultural platforms like Spotify show related dynamics the place algorithms reinforce present recognition moderately than floor unknown options.
These observations construct on many years of promoting science analysis documenting relationships between promoting context and outcomes. Research cited within the IPA paper embrace Armstrong & Chung (2000), Bolls & Muehling (2007), and Kischner & Karpinski (2021), alongside 2014 analysis from AOL and Nielsen, all exhibiting that promoting consumed by distracted audiences, in cluttered environments, or amid increased advert masses generates weaker recall and gross sales results. Ebdy emphasizes these elements “act as a drag on efficiency” moderately than making effectiveness not possible, however argues the cumulative impression creates measurably worse baseline circumstances than existed beforehand.
Brand marketing shown to drive up to 6x greater long-term sales impact, in keeping with analysis from TransUnion and MMA International launched in October 2025, demonstrates that conventional measurement instruments could undervalue model contributions by as a lot as 83%—suggesting problem distinguishing between real effectiveness declines and measurement gaps.
The structural evaluation diverges from typical effectiveness debates that body efficiency as merchandise of execution high quality. Ebdy notes: “Principally, efficiency is framed as a product of insular excellence, or a minimum of intent: your understanding of viewers, your software of effectiveness rules, the standard of your promoting belongings, the knowledge of your media decisions.” The secular stagnation speculation as a substitute positions environmental elements as major constraints on achievable outcomes, analogous to financial circumstances that cap progress no matter coverage interventions.
Strategic responses and skepticism
Dr. Grace Kite, who focuses on advertising effectiveness measurement, provided certified settlement with Ebdy’s environmental evaluation whereas proposing different explanations in a January 8 LinkedIn comment. She urged financial circumstances—particularly inflation outstripping wage will increase—could clarify effectiveness challenges extra straight than media atmosphere shifts. The statement introduces macroeconomic demand constraints as potential confounding variables in any effectiveness decline attribution.
Mike Follett, CEO of Lumen Analysis, characterized the evaluation as “very good pondering” that aligns with knowledge offered by Peter Discipline and Heather Dansie in Manchester exhibiting declines in high-attention media consumption. The validation from consideration measurement specialists lends empirical help to claims about degraded promoting consumption high quality, although Scott Luther, EVP of Head of Media at Mythic, noted that “goal circumstances are major drivers of outcomes in practically every other complicated market”—implicitly questioning why promoting ought to be exempt from environmental constraints.
James Hankins, whose advertising technique work has been documented in analyses of brand versus performance balance, urged the proliferation of low-attention media represents solely a part of the image. In his January 14 remark, Hankins indicated he had been creating associated evaluation inspecting “broader enterprise and cultural contexts” past pure media atmosphere adjustments, suggesting the secular stagnation body could oversimplify multicausal effectiveness challenges.
Erez Levin referenced analysis from Dr. Grace Kite and Tom Roach on “a number of littles” approaches to model constructing, although Ebdy responded with skepticism about that specific methodology. The change illustrated fractures even amongst these broadly accepting environmental problem premises, with disagreement about which particular responses most successfully handle recognized issues.
Ebdy’s suggestions middle on price range reassessment “from first rules,” systematic testing and experimentation moderately than wholesale strategic overhauls, and preservation of distinctive model belongings. On price range allocation, the evaluation warns towards easy spending will increase with out evaluating the place cash flows: “Some manufacturers will discover themselves drastically underspending what is critical to develop on this new atmosphere, others may have been lulled into spending the correct amount very badly.” The steering acknowledges extremely digitized classes might even see algorithmic suggestions loops defending massive model positions, doubtlessly indicating overspending amongst market leaders.
The paper emphasizes evidence-based change administration over “leaping headlong within the unknown just like the mavericks of yesteryear,” advocating for what it describes as “crossing the river whereas feeling the stones”—systematic prototyping that builds effectiveness data earlier than scaling interventions. This measured method contrasts with radical transformation narratives that periodically floor in advertising discourse, positioning paranoia about environmental challenges as aggressive benefit moderately than justification for panic.
Efficiency advertising’s existential questions
Tom Goodwin, keynote speaker and marketing consultant who co-founded All We Have Is Now, articulated a extra basic critique of efficiency advertising economics in a January 17 post on X. Goodwin argued that “an entire era and tranche of individuals do not get that one of the simplest ways to promote is not to drive instant gross sales however to have the ability to cost much more cash.” The statement positions pricing energy derived from model power as the first promoting goal, with volume-focused efficiency advertising representing a “doom loop” that traps firms in unsustainable margin profiles.
Based on Goodwin, firms hooked on efficiency promoting that drives clicks and gross sales “with out sufficient margin to make the corporate sustainable” face structural disadvantages no matter tactical optimization. He famous that “there are virtually no examples ever of firms buying and selling quantity for margin by shifting up market as soon as a consumer base is established,” suggesting efficiency advertising’s foundational promise—purchase prospects cheaply, then optimize for profitability—not often materializes in observe.
The critique extends to technological options often positioned as efficiency advertising enhancements. Goodwin characterised “actual time optimization and utilizing AI to make adverts” as mechanisms that “merely cement your place as an organization that may’t escape of common and widespread competitors.” The evaluation positions automation and algorithmic optimization as instruments that enhance effectivity inside present aggressive positions moderately than enabling differentiation mandatory for premium pricing.
Goodwin’s perspective acquired blended responses. One commenter dismissed the evaluation as “made up slop” noting “numerous numbers of firms that commerce on worth moderately than value,” whereas others endorsed the framing. Raoul Plickat urged that efficient worth positioning “required deep pondering” more and more “outsourced to AI,” with most advertising professionals now partaking in superficial aggressive mimicry. Robin M. emphasised that “outstanding manufacturers outlast C Suite and activist buyers,” positioning long-term model stewardship as incompatible with efficiency advertising’s short-term optimization tradition.
Analysis on brand awareness boosting performance marketing ROI by 286% from TikTok and Tracksuit, launched in October 2024, demonstrated that manufacturers recognized by 40% of customers achieved 43% higher efficiency advertising effectivity than these recognized by 30%. The discovering helps Goodwin’s competition that model funding creates circumstances for superior efficiency outcomes, although it positions the connection as synergistic moderately than zero-sum.
Kamran Hassan’s April 5, 2025 thread on X provided simplified rules derived from eight years of promoting expertise, emphasizing customer-centric messaging over product options. Hassan’s steering—”Individuals do not care about your product. They care about what your product can do for them” and “Advertising and marketing isn’t about which product you promote. Advertising and marketing is about which story you inform”—echoed themes from Goodwin’s critique whereas avoiding express performance-versus-brand framing.
The automation and management stress
Brian O’Kelley, co-founder and CEO of Scope3, contributed satirical commentary by his January 17 LinkedIn post titled “Dante’s Adverts Inferno,” which enumerated 9 ranges of promoting high quality degradation. The ninth stage described “adverts as a vector to focus on and kill folks,” whereas progressively much less extreme infractions included retargeting that follows customers regardless of zero buy intent, extreme business breaks throughout essential sports activities moments, and sponsored listings for knockoff merchandise.
O’Kelley’s first stage—”Your spouse texting you ‘ChatGPT is getting adverts???’ and one way or the other pondering it is your fault”—resonated with promoting professionals navigating platform growth into new surfaces. Luis Manrique urged a tenth stage involving “devil chewing on CTV fraud, final contact attribution and cookie banners,” highlighting measurement methodology considerations that compound environmental effectiveness challenges.
The commentary displays broader trade anxiousness about Meta’s AI advertising automation and platform control over campaign execution. Meta’s Benefit+ system and subsequent Andromeda machine studying enhancements have generated efficiency claims alongside advertiser considerations about diminished concentrating on, artistic, and placement management. The strain between algorithmic effectivity and strategic oversight seems throughout platform debates, with entrepreneurs questioning whether or not automation genuinely improves outcomes or just obscures attribution in ways in which profit platform income.
Alexander S. famous that somebody requested whether or not Claude would add promoting, prompting rationalization that the AI assistant’s present pricing mannequin obviated ad-supported economics “for now.” The change illustrated consciousness that promoting growth follows financial logic moderately than consumer profit calculations, with platforms introducing monetization when income wants exceed subscription or transaction-based fashions.
Andrea Tortella, CEO of Thrad specializing in paid promoting in massive language fashions, countered that “adverts in chatgpt is paradise not hell,” suggesting skilled views on promoting high quality diverge sharply from client and adjoining trade views. The remark highlighted fractures between these constructing promoting infrastructure, these shopping for placements, and finish customers experiencing implementation.
Proof gaps and measurement challenges
The talk’s depth partly displays restricted empirical proof about whether or not promoting effectiveness has genuinely declined at inhabitants stage. Ebdy acknowledges that “promoting effectiveness is notoriously tough to outline—not to mention measure—at an trade stage,” with accessible knowledge suggesting campaigns have “turn into extra environment friendly and fewer efficient” with out definitive causal attribution. Some analysts interpret patterns as execution failures—inadequate funding or poor software of established rules. Others recommend statistical artifacts from conflating massive and small model efficiency in aggregated datasets.
Analysis exhibiting marketing measurement confidence stalling despite data growth, launched by TransUnion in October 2025, discovered that 61.7% of entrepreneurs keep confidence in efficiency metrics however confidence ranges have stopped rising regardless of improved instruments and considerable knowledge. The stagnation occurred alongside 49.5% of respondents citing fragmented knowledge as the first motive they query measurement accuracy, suggesting technical capabilities haven’t translated into strategic readability.
Google’s March 2025 analysis revealing marketing returns in months 5-24 equaling first four months demonstrated that companies routinely undervalue carryover results in measurement approaches. Steven Rampersad, Principal Analytical Advisor at Google, emphasised that “the ‘carryover impact’ is actual, however typically ignored,” with evaluation exhibiting 1% model consciousness will increase usually drive 0.6% long-term gross sales lifts whereas boosting short-term gross sales by 0.4%.
The measurement complexity means distinguishing between real effectiveness declines and artifact-driven misperceptions stays difficult. Marketers drowning in data yet struggling to measure campaign impact, in keeping with December 2025 Funnel analysis, discovered that 86% of in-house entrepreneurs and 79% of company entrepreneurs can’t decide the impression of every advertising channel regardless of unprecedented analytics entry. Solely 8% of in-house groups and 21% of company entrepreneurs possess superior analytics abilities utilizing strategies like market combine modeling, incrementality testing, and attribution modeling.
Organizations with subtle measurement capabilities show superior outcomes throughout a number of dimensions in comparison with friends counting on fundamental reporting instruments. Amongst groups utilizing superior analytics, 76% really feel empowered to experiment with new advertising approaches, suggesting measurement maturity capabilities as each cultural and efficiency differentiator. The discovering implies that effectiveness challenges could disproportionately impression organizations missing analytical sophistication to navigate complicated environments.
Allocation and optimization debates
The secular stagnation speculation carries implications for price range allocation between model constructing and efficiency advertising. Analysis cited in Ebdy’s evaluation and broader trade research constantly exhibits optimum splits various by enterprise mannequin, with e-commerce manufacturers reaching peak media effectiveness when allocating 40-60% of funding to model constructing. Evaluation of European manufacturers’ e-commerce ROI between 2020-2023 confirmed highest returns occurring when brand-performance splits approached this steadiness, difficult latest developments towards performance-heavy allocations.
LinkedIn’s research on owned prominence versus rented advertising in B2B advertising, launched in December 2025, argued that branded searches ship $12.99 return on promoting spend versus $0.68 for generic phrases. The platform’s evaluation characterised AI-driven discovery as reshaping advertising methods by privileging manufacturers with robust natural presence throughout a number of info sources, doubtlessly disadvantaging these relying totally on paid placements.
The strain between long-term model funding and short-term efficiency strain seems throughout organizational contexts. BCG model impression evaluation of practically 150 US manufacturers confirmed that regaining misplaced market share requires $1.85 funding for each $1 initially saved by cuts, in keeping with 2022 analysis. The multiplier impact suggests slicing model budgets throughout financial strain creates compounding challenges that exceed preliminary financial savings, although organizations going through instant income wants could have restricted options no matter long-term economics.
Tom Goodwin’s emphasis on pricing energy derived from model power connects to analysis exhibiting robust manufacturers constantly command costs as much as twice these of weaker manufacturers in the identical class. Throughout financial uncertainty, pricing benefits turn into particularly invaluable as robust manufacturers expertise much less quantity decline when elevating costs. TransUnion and MMA International analysis from October 2025 demonstrated that model campaigns carry favorability by 24% and drive conversion charges as much as 4.7 occasions increased amongst favorable customers, offering mechanisms by which model funding generates monetary returns.
Infrastructure and platform dynamics
The effectiveness debate unfolds alongside platform infrastructure adjustments that alter promoting supply mechanisms. Amazon’s December 2025 shift of Brand Store quality ratings from engagement-based scoring to gross sales efficiency attribution exemplifies broader trade motion towards outcome-focused measurement. Excessive-quality shops generate as much as 97% extra gross sales than low-quality counterparts in keeping with Amazon’s July-September 2025 knowledge, with the methodology change enabling clearer algorithmic optimization towards enterprise goals.
Meta’s introduction of AI brokers and continued Benefit+ automation growth represents parallel developments the place platforms more and more mediate marketing campaign execution by algorithmic programs. The Mannequin Context Protocol Server launched in closed beta in November 2025 creates standardized entry layers connecting AI fashions with promoting infrastructure, doubtlessly enabling extra subtle automated optimization whereas additional abstracting advertiser management.
Retail media networks’ expansion of audience targeting capabilities, documented in IAB Australia’s December 2025 blueprint, identifies 16 segmentation strategies retailers should deploy to compete because the channel approaches projected $300 billion market measurement by 2030. The standardization efforts and infrastructure investments recommend retail media’s maturation could create new high-performing stock sources whilst different channels face effectiveness challenges.
Pentaleap’s H2 2025 benchmarks exhibiting sponsored products coverage climbing 7% as retailers undertake dynamic placement methods signifies ongoing stock growth. Electronics and workplace provides command excessive impression volumes suggesting mature public sale dynamics, whereas furnishings’s 182% impression quantity progress signifies rising alternative in higher-consideration classes. The category-level variations show that promoting effectiveness challenges manifest erratically throughout product verticals and platform maturities.
Skilled implications and outlook
The secular stagnation debate issues for advertising professionals as a result of it frames effectiveness challenges as both surmountable by improved execution or requiring basic strategic recalibration. Ebdy’s evaluation positions recognizing environmental constraints as aggressive benefit: “Those that recognise this potential inflection level may have a headstart on stealing the market share of those that do not.” The framing suggests paranoia about structural challenges allows superior strategic responses in comparison with rivals attributing efficiency gaps purely to tactical shortcomings.
Nevertheless, critics might argue the environmental determinism dangers turning into self-fulfilling prophecy if it discourages funding or experimentation. Dr. Grace Kite’s emphasis on financial demand constraints and James Hankins’ consideration to broader enterprise contexts recommend a number of causal elements contribute to effectiveness variation past media atmosphere alone. Organizations slicing budgets based mostly on secular stagnation premises with out addressing measurement gaps, allocation inefficiencies, or artistic high quality could worsen outcomes whereas attributing outcomes to uncontrollable exterior forces.
The IPA’s October 2024 framework for combining marketing mix modeling, experimentation, and attribution emphasised that “the answer lies extra in establishing a decisive, effectiveness tradition than in chasing the proper analysis approach.” Laurence Inexperienced, Director of Effectiveness at IPA, positioned organizational tradition as major determinant of measurement success, with technical methodology decisions secondary to systematic studying agendas and cross-functional alignment.
X’s announcement of a $1 million prize for prime article content material in the course of the subsequent payout interval, referenced in an January 18 publish utilizing Lorem Ipsum placeholder textual content, illustrates platform incentive constructions which will affect content material creation patterns. The prize construction’s emphasis on long-form writing over short-form engagement indicators platform technique shifts, although connection to promoting effectiveness debates stays oblique.
Skilled networks’ position in facilitating these debates demonstrates how trade discourse more and more happens by semi-public boards moderately than conferences or commerce publications alone. LinkedIn and X allow speedy change of views whereas creating everlasting information that doc evolution {of professional} pondering. The transparency permits broader participation however may additionally speed up consensus formation round doubtlessly incomplete frameworks earlier than empirical proof totally develops.
As platforms proceed increasing AI-driven automation, measurement methodologies wrestle to maintain tempo with attribution complexity, and privateness rules constrain monitoring capabilities, the promoting trade confronts real uncertainty about optimum methods. Whether or not present circumstances signify momentary transition challenges or everlasting environmental shifts that require new effectiveness benchmarks stays unresolved. Organizations investing in subtle measurement, systematic testing, and long-term model constructing whereas sustaining tactical efficiency advertising capabilities seem greatest positioned to navigate uncertainty no matter which interpretation proves right.
Timeline
- 2013: Paul Dyson’s Prime 10 Drivers of Profitability analysis paperwork elevated promoting returns concentrated amongst largest advertisers, early proof of potential “Matthew Impact”
- Mid-2010s: Ofcom knowledge begins documenting smartphone utilization layering incrementally onto present media consumption moderately than substituting, in keeping with analysis cited by Ebdy
- October 9, 2024: IPA releases “Making effectiveness work” comprehensive report emphasizing multi-faceted measurement approaches combining MMM, experimentation, and attribution
- October 20, 2024: TikTok and Tracksuit release research exhibiting model consciousness boosts efficiency advertising ROI by 286%, with excessive consciousness manufacturers reaching 2.86 occasions conversion charge of low consciousness manufacturers
- October 24, 2025: TransUnion survey reveals marketing measurement confidence stalling regardless of knowledge progress, with 61.7% sustaining confidence however ranges not rising
- October 2025: TransUnion and MMA Global release Brand as Performance framework exhibiting conventional measurement instruments undervalue model advertising contributions by as much as 83%
- November 2025: Silverback Strategies CEO Neil Welsh launches public apology campaign for efficiency advertising trade’s reliance on damaged attribution fashions
- December 2025: IAB Australia releases blueprint figuring out 16 viewers segmentation strategies for retail media networks
- December 3, 2025: Funnel research reveals 86% of in-house entrepreneurs wrestle to find out channel impression regardless of unprecedented analytics entry
- December 12, 2025: Amazon Advertising replaces Brand Store quality rating methodology abandoning engagement-based scoring for gross sales efficiency attribution
- December 2025: LinkedIn releases research on owned prominence exhibiting branded searches ship $12.99 ROAS versus $0.68 for generic phrases
- January 8, 2026: IPA publishes Charlie Ebdy’s “Solely the paranoid survive: rethinking effectiveness in 2026” evaluation introducing promoting secular stagnation idea
- January 8, 2026: LinkedIn dialogue thread begins with responses from Dr. Grace Kite, Mike Follett, Scott Luther, and different advertising effectiveness specialists
- January 17, 2026: Tom Goodwin posts on X arguing that greatest promoting technique focuses on pricing energy moderately than instant gross sales, characterizing efficiency advertising as unsustainable “doom loop”
- January 17, 2026: Brian O’Kelley posts “Dante’s Adverts Inferno” satirical commentary on promoting high quality degradation throughout 9 ranges
- January 18, 2026: X declares $1 million prize for prime article content material in subsequent payout interval, emphasizing long-form writing
Abstract
Who: Charlie Ebdy, Chief Technique Officer at Omnicom Media Group UK and Convenor of Judges for the 2026 IPA Effectiveness Awards, authored analysis introducing promoting secular stagnation idea. Business respondents embrace Dr. Grace Kite (advertising effectiveness specialist), Mike Follett (CEO of Lumen Analysis), Tom Goodwin (keynote speaker and marketing consultant), Brian O’Kelley (co-founder and CEO of Scope3), and James Hankins (advertising technique vice chairman).
What: Evaluation arguing trendy media panorama poses unprecedented structural challenges to promoting effectiveness by distraction (concurrent platform utilization), litter (proliferated touchpoints), and algorithmic bias (programs favoring established manufacturers). Debate facilities on whether or not environmental elements genuinely constrain achievable outcomes or whether or not claims obscure execution shortcomings, with parallel discussions questioning efficiency advertising’s basic economics and AI automation’s position in marketing campaign technique.
When: The IPA revealed Ebdy’s evaluation on January 8, 2026, with subsequent dialogue unfolding by LinkedIn feedback dated January 8-14, 2026 and parallel X posts from January 17-18, 2026. Analysis attracts on media consumption developments since mid-2010s smartphone adoption and advertising science research spanning 2000-2021.
The place: Printed on IPA web site (ipa.co.uk) with skilled discourse occurring primarily by LinkedIn and X, representing semi-public boards the place advertising practitioners, company leaders, know-how executives, and effectiveness researchers change views on promoting technique.
Why: Three interconnected environmental shifts doubtlessly degraded promoting effectiveness: smartphone utilization including incremental media consumption and concurrent promoting publicity, proliferated touchpoints creating cluttered environments the place particular person exposures occupy smaller time fractions, and algorithmic suggestion programs creating suggestions loops that profit established manufacturers over unknown options. Advertising and marketing science analysis constantly exhibits distraction, litter, and excessive ad-load environments scale back recall and gross sales results, although distinguishing real effectiveness declines from measurement artifacts or execution failures stays difficult with out population-level empirical knowledge.
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