Import cargo quantity at main U.S. container ports ought to see a typical end-of-year slowdown via November and December regardless of persevering with tariff uncertainty, in line with the International Port Tracker report launched on November 7, 2025, by the Nationwide Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. Most vacation merchandise has already reached shops or warehouses, permitting retailers to mitigate potential worth impacts via strategic stock administration.

“We have spent a lot of the yr nervous in regards to the impression of tariffs on each inflation and the availability chain however the vacation season is right here and mitigation efforts seem to have paid off,” Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Provide Chain and Customs Coverage, said within the announcement. Retailer cabinets stay nicely stocked whereas worth results have been minimized, largely as a result of retailers frontloading imports in periods of low or delayed tariff will increase and absorbing prices themselves.

The report tasks November volumes will attain 1.85 million Twenty-Foot Equal Models, marking a 14.4% decline in comparison with the earlier yr. December’s forecast reveals a fair steeper drop to 1.75 million TEU, down 17.9% year-over-year. These would symbolize the slowest months since March 2023, when ports dealt with 1.62 million TEU.

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Tariff coverage creates planning challenges

A 20% “fentanyl” tariff on China will probably be decreased to 10% on November 10, in line with the announcement. A twice-delayed vital enhance in “reciprocal” tariffs on China set to take impact the identical day has been delayed for a yr. An present 10% reciprocal tariff on China imposed below the Worldwide Emergency Financial Powers Act stays in place. The Supreme Courtroom heard arguments on Wednesday concerning the legality of tariffs below IEEPA.

Ben Hackett, founding father of Hackett Associates, characterised the on-again, off-again tariff coverage as creating tough long-term planning situations for importers and ocean carriers. “These situations make market forecasting extremely unsure,” Hackett said within the report. The commerce outlook tasks a small decline in imports for 2025 in contrast with 2024, adopted by an additional, bigger decline within the first quarter of 2026.

These developments happen as NRF forecasts that 2025 holiday sales will increase between 3.7% and 4.2% in contrast with 2024 to only over $1 trillion. Client spending plans present exceptional resilience regardless of financial pressures, with the group projecting common spending of $890.49 per particular person on vacation presents, meals, decorations and seasonal objects.

September volumes decline throughout main ports

U.S. ports lined by International Port Tracker dealt with 2.1 million Twenty-Foot Equal Models in September, the most recent month for which ultimate knowledge is offered. That determine was down 9.3% from August and down 7.4% yr over yr.

Ports haven’t but reported numbers for October, however International Port Tracker projected the month at 1.99 million TEU, down 11.5% yr over yr. Following July’s peak of two.39 million TEU, November and December could be the slowest months of the yr.

November and December historically see decreased exercise, however the massive year-over-year declines stem partly from elevated imports in late 2024 pushed by considerations over port strikes. This yr’s tariff-driven frontloading additionally pulled up late-year cargo, making a difficult comparability baseline.

The primary half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% yr over yr. The total yr is forecast at 24.9 million TEU, down 2.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

First quarter 2026 reveals continued weak spot

January 2026 is forecast at 1.98 million TEU, down 11.1% yr over yr. February tasks to 1.85 million TEU, down 9%, whereas March reveals 1.79 million TEU, down 16.7%. These projections mirror the delayed impression of tariff insurance policies and the normalization of stock ranges following months of frontloading exercise.

The information carries vital implications for retail media promoting methods. Retail media networks are projected to capture approximately 20% of total global advertising revenue by 2030, exceeding $300 billion in line with Omdia analysis. The focus of client spending throughout vacation durations makes fourth-quarter planning important for retailers and advertisers who should steadiness stock availability with advertising funding.

Advertising and marketing implications of provide chain disruption

Tariff concerns have pushed 34% of shoppers to start holiday buying early, in line with current Wunderkind analysis, with 71% citing greater costs from tariffs as their prime concern heading into Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025. This early purchasing habits creates challenges for entrepreneurs trying to optimize marketing campaign timing and finances allocation throughout the prolonged vacation season.

The retail trade’s response to produce chain uncertainty demonstrates how bodily stock administration instantly influences digital promoting technique. Commerce media platforms have expanded measurement capabilities to attach promoting publicity to buy habits throughout each on-line and offline channels. As client spending concentrates throughout Thanksgiving weekend and all through December, retailers deploy subtle attribution applied sciences to measure marketing campaign effectiveness.

Earlier this yr, the Interactive Promoting Bureau lowered 2025 promoting forecasts to five.7% development, citing tariff impacts on automotive, retail, and client electronics sectors. These macroeconomic elements affect each client habits and advertising funding choices throughout the digital promoting ecosystem.

International Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, gives historic knowledge and forecasts for U.S. ports together with Los Angeles/Lengthy Seaside, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is offered free to NRF retail members.

The Nationwide Retail Federation, headquartered in Washington, D.C., advocates for the retail trade via financial evaluation and coverage positions. Retail represents the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting a couple of in 4 U.S. jobs—55 million working Individuals.

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Abstract

Who: The Nationwide Retail Federation and Hackett Associates launched the International Port Tracker report analyzing import cargo quantity at main U.S. container ports. Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Provide Chain and Customs Coverage, and Ben Hackett, Hackett Associates Founder, supplied evaluation of the info and its implications for retailers and importers.

What: Import cargo quantity is forecast to say no considerably in November and December 2025, with November projected at 1.85 million TEU (down 14.4% year-over-year) and December at 1.75 million TEU (down 17.9% year-over-year). The total yr 2025 is forecast at 24.9 million TEU, down 2.3% from 2024’s 25.5 million TEU. Retailer cabinets stay nicely stocked regardless of tariff uncertainty, as retailers frontloaded imports earlier within the yr.

When: The report was launched on November 7, 2025, protecting September’s ultimate knowledge of two.1 million TEU and projecting volumes via March 2026. A 20% “fentanyl” tariff on China will probably be decreased to 10% on November 10, whereas vital will increase in “reciprocal” tariffs have been delayed for a yr.

The place: The evaluation covers main U.S. container ports together with Los Angeles/Lengthy Seaside, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Why: The import slowdown displays typical seasonal patterns mixed with the after-effects of tariff-driven frontloading earlier in 2025. Retailers took proactive steps to import merchandise in periods of low or delayed tariff will increase, leading to well-stocked stock forward of the vacation season. On-again, off-again tariff coverage has created planning uncertainty for importers and ocean carriers, with delayed reciprocal tariff will increase and ongoing authorized challenges to tariff authority below the Worldwide Emergency Financial Powers Act.


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