You need to hand it to Mark Zuckerberg. When most individuals have an costly midlife disaster, they purchase a sports activities automotive or develop a beard. He tried to purchase actuality itself. I simply purchased a sports activities automotive however didn’t develop a beard.
So..he tried to create (purchase) his personal universe. He known as it the Metaverse. It was a shiny new toy that he thought would change the world.
That shimmering techno-utopia the place we’d all don headsets the dimensions of toasters and maintain conferences as legless cartoons floating in beige digital places of work.
Zuckerberg wasn’t content material with merely proudly owning Fb, Instagram, and WhatsApp—the precise infrastructure of human procrastination. No, he needed to rebrand your entire firm as Meta and spend roughly $36 billion attempting to promote us on the concept that strapping a display screen to our faces was the way forward for civilization.
However he isn’t alone. Elon Musk has a shiny toy besides it’s a distant planet in our current universe known as Mars. And that makes as a lot sense as Mark’s distraction and folly.
Besides that simply going to Mars may kill you and when you arrive stepping exterior into the poisonous air and temperatures that can freeze you (minus 225 levels Fahrenheit on a nasty day). And don’t take into consideration going to the seashore or a stroll within the forest.
However…again to Meta and Mark. It was such a compelling imaginative and prescient: A world with worse graphics than a 2003 PlayStation sport, the place you may have conferences which might be someway even extra miserable than Zoom.
In fact, traders weren’t thrilled. Seems it’s exhausting to promote individuals on an escapist fantasy when actual life already appears like a dystopian sci-fi novel. However it’s a must to admire him for attempting. Mark didn’t simply wager the farm…he bulldozed it, paved it over with 1000’s of programmers’ pale our bodies, and known as it the following frontier of human connection.
So right here’s the query:
Was it a visionary genius a number of many years too early? Or the most costly instance of “Shiny Toy Syndrome” in tech historical past?
Mark was attempting to create a brand new universe on earth and Elon continues to be desirous to ship us to a harmful far distant universe to flee earth.
I believe historical past will inform us who was dumber and thought he was smarter as a result of he had an excessive amount of cash.
Being good at one factor doesn’t imply you’re a genius at every little thing. That syndrome is usually known as the “Dunning-Kruger Impact.”
Enter Agentic AI
In the present day, the promise is even grander: Agentic AI that doesn’t simply reply questions however does issues for you. Your private agent. Your tireless worker. Your digital butler, therapist, and life coach rolled into one.
Sound acquainted? It ought to. As a result of if there’s one factor tech historical past teaches us, it’s that for each smartphone that modifications the world, there’s a Metaverse ready to devour billions and ship nearly nothing.
So earlier than all of us rush to wager the farm on AI brokers which may, let’s be sincere, nonetheless wrestle to order a pizza appropriately, perhaps it’s value asking: is that this the following nice leap? Or simply the following shiny toy ready to turn into a really costly cautionary story?
Why it issues
Telling the distinction between the fad of a shiny toy vs a development that can change the world and make a distinction is difficult to choose from a distance. What appears sensible right now can look very dumb sooner or later
Investing in an actual, lasting development issues as a result of it drives significant progress and solves real issues, whereas chasing a shiny fad wastes time, cash, and belief.
Selecting properly shapes a greater future as an alternative of squandering sources on hype that delivers nothing.
By the numbers
Numbers matter. If my Garmin watch doesn’t report my bike experience knowledge with how far I rode and the way excessive I climbed, or my sleep rating…..It by no means occurred.
Meta poured a ton of cash into the Metaverse and thought they might break the universe and make Mark Zuckerberg the “Grasp of the Universe”. Or, perhaps it was a little bit of a “Area of Goals”. Construct it and they’ll come. However they didn’t!
One particular person put in some massive {dollars} into what he thought was the long run and at this stage it appears prefer it wasn’t, however only a billionaire’s folly.
He appears to have forgotten a phenomenon of the eleventh commandment. “The knowledge of the crowds.”
It refers back to the statement that the typical guess of a big group of individuals might be remarkably correct—much more correct than most particular person skilled guesses.
The traditional instance refers to Francis Galton (1907), who at a rustic honest, requested about 800 individuals to guess the burden of an ox. Whereas particular person guesses diverse extensively, the median (or imply) of all guesses was extraordinarily near the precise weight.
Comply with the cash?
It seems that the crowds have voted with their wallets and perhaps their collective knowledge could also be very sensible.
AI traders—particularly VCs and main tech gamers—are pouring unprecedented capital into Agentic AI. In Q1 2025 alone, international VC funding for AI startups reached a report $91.5 billion, with over half of that aimed toward constructing autonomous AI brokers
In Europe, roughly $548 million was allotted to AI agent startups in simply the primary six weeks of 2025 Crunchbase News.
The market’s development projections are staggering. Estimates recommend that the Agentic AI sector may develop from round $5–7 billion in 2024–2025 to $187 billion by 2034—and even $216 billion by 2035—with compound annual development charges close to 40–42% LinkedIn.
Fortune 500 adoption can be exceptional: 79% of these companies currently have active Agentic AI projects and Azure/Redux stories present that just about 30% of organizations are already operating agentic AI, with 44% planning to combine it inside the subsequent 12 months Blue Prism.
A Georgian survey of 600 execs confirms that 91% in R&D plan to undertake agentic AI, with 45% already piloting it—and over half anticipate transformational affect on productiveness Georgian.
On the company scale, companies like Microsoft report over $500 million in price financial savings from AI initiatives in 2024 Times of India, and B2B knowledge from the UK and EU reveals practically two‑thirds of corporations seeing ROI inside the first 12 months of AI adoption.
Nevertheless, a sobering projection from Gartner warns that over 40% of agentic AI projects may be scrapped by 2027 as a consequence of price and unclear worth—although additionally they predict such brokers will deal with 15% of routine enterprise choices and be built-in into a 3rd of enterprise apps by 2028. s
What’s “Shiny Toy Syndrome”?
Shiny Toy Syndrome is the tendency to get distracted by new, flashy, or hyped-up applied sciences, instruments, or concepts—with out critically evaluating their actual usefulness or endurance. It’s when pleasure about novelty outweighs sensible judgment.
In enterprise and tech, it reveals up as chasing the most recent development just because it’s new, slightly than as a result of it solves an actual downside higher. The consequence? Wasted time, cash, and deal with issues that transform fads slightly than lasting improvements.
It’s the explanation groups undertake instruments nobody makes use of, traders fund billion-dollar flops, and customers purchase devices that collect mud. Recognizing shiny toy syndrome early is about asking: Does this actually make issues higher? Or is it simply new for the sake of latest?
work out if one thing is only a shiny fad and distracting or helpful and sport altering:
Fads occur as a result of people are wired to like novelty, and entrepreneurs know the right way to amplify that pleasure with hype and guarantees of being forward of the curve. They turn into shiny new toys when individuals chase the fun of the new with out stopping to ask whether or not it truly solves an actual downside or delivers lasting worth.
Clue 1: It solves an precise human downside
The primary clue that one thing is an actual development slightly than a passing fad is whether or not it solves an precise, persistent downside in individuals’s lives—and does so in a manner that’s higher, cheaper, or simpler than earlier than.
Smartphones didn’t simply look cool; they allow us to carry communication, pictures, and the web in our pockets, creating lasting demand. In contrast, loads of shiny toys—from 3D TVs to Google Glass—failed as a result of they didn’t align with what individuals actually wanted or wished sufficient to make the change.
Clue 2: Accepted by the plenty
One other hallmark of a real development is adoption that spreads past early fans to the mainstream. Search for indicators that ordinary, non-technical individuals are utilizing the expertise naturally, with out coaching manuals or costly gear. It additionally helps if the expertise improves over time and there’s an ecosystem of complementary companies. The App Retailer supercharged smartphone adoption by making new capabilities immediately accessible, whereas the Metaverse struggled with clunky {hardware} and nowhere attention-grabbing to go.
Clue 3: The hype-to-results ratio
Fads typically have advertising and marketing that utterly outpaces real-world outcomes, with massive guarantees and skinny supply. Lengthy-term developments, alternatively, would possibly begin quietly, even boringly, however show themselves by way of repeatable worth and viable enterprise fashions. The very best rule of thumb? Be curious sufficient to experiment, however skeptical sufficient to ask: “Is that this fixing an actual downside individuals will hold paying for, or is it simply the following costly distraction?”
And is it delivering actual world outcomes?
The eras of shiny tech toys: A private & cultural historical past
I’ve fallen for FOMO a number of occasions and I’ve been distracted by shiny tech toys. My newest foray into that foible and folly are the Meta Rayban sensible glasses. Is it a fad or will it change the world? I’m nonetheless undecided. However I believe it’s a stepping stone to the long run.
I used to be additionally tempted by the cell phone when it was the dimensions of a suitcase and weighed a number of kilograms and also you needed to have it put in in your automotive like a small engine. It didn’t have an web characteristic or an internet browser on the time
However was it helpful?
Getting an pressing name whereas driving to resolve a consumer downside slightly than getting a pager message and looking for a pay telephone helped me shut 1,000,000 greenback deal.
Smartphones: The shiny toy that modified every little thing
The primary iPhone launch in 2007 wasn’t only a product reveal—it was a cultural shift that redefined trendy life. What started as a shiny luxurious gadget shortly turned the world’s dominant computing platform, integrating communication, pictures, funds, and navigation right into a single indispensable gadget. As of 2024, over 6.8 billion individuals worldwide use smartphones (Statista), making them arguably probably the most profitable shopper expertise in historical past.
Laptops: The workhorse evolution
Whereas they by no means obtained the rock-star hype of smartphones, laptops remodeled work, creativity, and mobility. From the chunky IBM ThinkPads of the 90s to right now’s modern MacBooks and Chromebooks, they enabled distant work and empowered generations of creators. International laptop computer shipments reached 237 million items in 2021 alone (Canalys), exhibiting that this “shiny toy” didn’t simply final—it matured fantastically into an on a regular basis important.
Social media: Connection or habit?
Initially offered as a technique to join with family and friends, social media advanced right into a trillion-dollar trade constructed on surveillance capitalism and algorithmic manipulation. Platforms like Fb, Instagram, and TikTok boast billions of customers—however they’ve additionally confronted fierce criticism for fueling polarization, psychological well being points, and misinformation (Pew Analysis). It’s the last word paradox: a shiny toy that labored financially past creativeness, but stays probably the most criticized industries on Earth.
The Metaverse: The $36 billion shiny toy
Arguably the largest shiny toy syndrome failure of the final decade, the Metaverse was Mark Zuckerberg’s bet-the-company gamble that most individuals didn’t need. By 2023, Meta had spent over $36 billion on its Actuality Labs division (Enterprise Insider), but person adoption remained dismal. With clunky, costly headsets and restricted real-world utility, the imaginative and prescient fell flat, proving which you could’t brute-force cultural change—regardless of how a lot you spend
Sensible glasses: Promise and actuality
Sensible glasses have lengthy promised seamless augmented actuality however have principally delivered area of interest curiosity. Google Glass famously crashed with customers over privateness fears and restricted utility, whereas Snap Spectacles and Ray-Ban Meta have seen solely modest adoption. Even with trendy designs and higher cameras, mainstream customers nonetheless don’t see a killer use case, leaving sensible glasses as an concept perennially ready for its second (The Verge).
Digital Actuality: Immersive, however not important
VR has been the “subsequent massive factor” for practically a decade, however mass-market success stays elusive. Headsets like Meta Quest 2 have offered nicely amongst players (with ~20 million items shipped, The Verge), and coaching/enterprise use instances present actual promise. But excessive prices, consolation points, and restricted must-have content material hold VR from turning into important for many customers—it’s immersive, spectacular, however nonetheless caught simply across the nook.
Agentic AI: The latest shiny toy?
However first “What’s agentic AI?”
“Agentic AI is synthetic intelligence designed to behave autonomously in your behalf, proactively planning and finishing duties slightly than simply responding to prompts. In essence it acts in your behalf slightly than simply creating nice concepts, photographs and content material.”
If you happen to go onto LinkedIn and have a look you will notice many posts that image it as a panacea and straightforward to do. The truth is way completely different.
Agentic AI is the most recent dazzling promise in tech in 2025: techniques that don’t simply reply to your questions however proactively do issues for you.
Suppose autonomous brokers that deal with planning, workflows, even reasoning steps throughout apps. The hype is plain—VCs are pouring in billions, founders are promising human-level assistants, and media headlines can’t get sufficient of the “AI brokers will change your group” narrative.
However scratch the floor, and also you’ll see the same old indicators of shiny toy syndrome: many demos are smoke and mirrors, with rigorously curated use instances that gloss over actual limitations in reasoning, reminiscence, and context retention. In the present day’s brokers typically hallucinate, get caught, or want important hand-holding. There’s an actual danger of overpromising, identical to the Metaverse, with breathless advertising and marketing outpacing precise utility.
So is Agentic AI simply one other fad?
Not essentially. It’s seemingly a real long-term development—however one which’s early, messy, and overhyped within the quick time period.
The underlying functionality is actual: AI that may coordinate duties and automate information work may remodel productiveness, simply as spreadsheets and serps did earlier than. The sensible method isn’t to dismiss it however to interact rigorously: experiment, prototype, be taught the bounds—and keep skeptical of grandiose claims.
In the long run, Agentic AI would possibly turn into boringly important, however solely after the hype burns off and the expertise matures.
A framework to think about when differentiating hype from the truth of Agentic AI
Listed below are 4 factors to think about to ensure actuality isn’t overwhelmed by hype.
#1: Utility
Agentic AI guarantees excessive utility by automating repetitive information work, orchestrating workflows, and serving as a private or group assistant—doubtlessly saving time and growing productiveness.
However present implementations typically wrestle with accuracy, reliability, and context administration, so the true utility right now continues to be area of interest and experimental, although the long-term potential is important.
#2: Adoption obstacles
Limitations stay substantial: customers want belief that brokers received’t make expensive errors, interfaces have to be intuitive, and lots of workflows require customization or oversight.
Enterprise patrons are cautious of safety and compliance dangers, whereas on a regular basis customers could also be intimidated by complexity or disillusioned by limitations.
#3: Ecosystem readiness
The ecosystem is quickly forming however not totally mature.
Whereas there are promising agent frameworks (OpenAI Assistants API, LangChain, AutoGen), integration with current software program, dependable API entry, and standardized tooling are nonetheless evolving—which means constructing and deploying helpful brokers at scale stays a technical problem.
#4: Cultural alignment
Culturally, there’s each pleasure and skepticism.
Customers need productiveness boosts, but in addition concern lack of management, errors, and moral issues over automation. For Agentic AI to realize mass adoption, it might want to align with person expectations for transparency, security, and real helpfulness—simply as smartphones and cloud companies did over time.
Closing ideas
Expertise will all the time tempt us with shiny new toys—some that remodel our lives and others that drain sources chasing hype. From smartphones that turned indispensable to the Metaverse that burned billions, historical past reveals the significance of essential analysis over blind enthusiasm.
Agentic AI sits at this crossroads right now: it’s bursting with potential to reshape work, but in addition dangers repeating outdated patterns of overpromising and underdelivering. The problem for all of us—builders, traders, customers—is to remain curious sufficient to discover its prospects whereas being disciplined sufficient to demand actual, lasting worth.
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