We’re excited to current this month’s excerpt from Future Horizons’ October report on the semiconductor market. Learn on to find the newest insights and outlook for the trade.

Government Abstract

August noticed Opto’s development tumble again, coming in at simply 0.3 p.c vs. final month’s 3.7 p.c, with the common development for the reason that market turned down in September 2022 at minus 2.5 p.c. July’s shipments had been 10.4 p.c down from its April 2022 peak.

The Discrete sector additionally continued its now 8-month lengthy unfavorable development trawl, at minus 9.4 p.c, in contrast with minus 9.2 p.c in July and minus 12.3 p.c in June, dashing final month’s hopes that the sector might have been exhibiting the primary indicators of a broader trade restoration.

Excluding reminiscence, the annualised IC market confirmed a extra subdued 8.4 p.c development, reflecting simply how robust an affect the reminiscence rebound has been on the semiconductor market.

While the general year-on-year whole Semiconductor market development in August was 28.0 p.c, up considerably from final month’s 18.0 p.c quantity and June’s 15.9 p.c development, backing out the Reminiscence, and to a lesser extent, Logic sectors, sadly reveals a way more sober image, with the Micro, Analog, Opto and Discrete markets nonetheless gripped in recession.

Because the yr finish approaches, there may be lastly a rising realisation that the sooner super-cycle euphoria round this yr’s robust double-digit development might need been misplaced given the rising flurry of unfavorable datapoints and softer-than-expected demand.

Apart from reminiscence, deservedly celebrating an actual restoration, key indicators such because the European and discrete markets stay in recession, Opto reveals barely any development, and unit development has but to recuperate. As we highlighted in our January 2024 trade replace webinar, the present robust double-digit month-to-month annualised development charges usually tend to be the semiconductor equal of ‘idiot’s gold,’ with the deeper and broader actual restoration from the 2023 collapse but to occur.

From a quantity and mainstream trade perspective, the semiconductor market remains to be in a deep downturn, regardless of a primarily memory-driven ASP surge driving robust income development.

It’s now eight quarters for the reason that begin of the recession in Q3-2022 making this correction one of many longest down intervals ever.

We reiterate our perception that 2024’s rebound will show a false daybreak, with low single-digit development anticipated in 2025 because the trade slowly recovers from the excess stock amassed through the Covid growth.

Learn The Full Report Right here: https://www.futurehorizons.com/page/137/

 

For those who missed final month’s trade replace webinar, now you can watch the recording here. Plus, don’t neglect—you’ll be able to nonetheless get a ten% low cost on the total report through the use of the code ‘Napier’ at checkout via the order link.