Morgan Stanley slightly pessimistic on Apple’s Q1 2023

An Apple Retailer emblem

AppleInsider could earn an affiliate fee on purchases made via hyperlinks on our web site.

In a observe to traders seen by AppleInsider on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley thinks that Apple will report income of $122.8 billion, up from a earlier forecast of $120.3 billion. This places Morgan Stanley simply 1% up from the consensus view of $122.1 billion.

Analysts put the reframing of the quarter right down to “higher than anticipated Product shipments” for iPad and Mac, and a “slight Companies overperformance.”

For the iPhone, a 75.5M cargo forecast is down 11% year-on-year, however whereas builds level to whole shipments 4M greater than analyst estimates, the timing of builds are “very back-end loaded given the late quarter manufacturing enchancment in Zhengzhou.”

Full with an unchanged estimated iPhone ASP of $916, Morgan Stanley assumes iPhone income of $68.9B, 1% beneath consensus and 4% down year-on-year.

For iPad, the income forecast is now up 9% to $8.5 billion, up 18% YoY, resulting from greater shipments at 20M as an alternative of 18M. Mac income is up 12% in its estimate to $9.8B, with an analogous increase in cargo to 7.2M items from 5.5M.

The Wearables, Residence, and Equipment section will probably be “beneath seasonal” expectations as, regardless of the launch of latest AirPods and Apple Watch merchandise, “we imagine Wearables are extra vulnerable to the broader pullback we’re seeing in client electronics spending.”

Companies income is forecast to $20.9B, up 7% year-on-year.

For March, Morgan Stanley thinks that demand headwinds within the client electronics market will probably be felt, however Apple’s efficiency reveals “the corporate is extra immune from these challenges.” Whereas there is a discount within the March quarter income and EPS to account for decrease iPad builds and “some Mac channel destocking,” it’s considerably buoyed by anticipated greater iPhone income.

The March quarter is now estimated at $97.5 billion towards Wall Road’s $98B forecast.

Regardless of being down on the quarter, the value goal remains to be $175, with the inventory nonetheless a “High Decide.”

Apple will probably be holding its investor call on Thursday, February 2, at 2:00 PM Pacific, 5:00 PM Jap.