Should Europe wean itself off US tech?

Think about if US President Donald Trump may flip a change and switch off Europe’s web.

It could sound far-fetched, loopy even. But it surely’s a situation that has been severely mentioned in tech business and coverage circles in current months, as tensions with Washington have escalated, and issues concerning the EU’s reliance on American expertise have come to the fore.

On the root of those issues is the very fact simply three US giants – Google, Microsoft and Amazon – provide 70% of Europe’s cloud-computing infrastructure, the scaffolding on which many on-line companies rely.

And a few query whether or not an unpredictable US chief would weaponize the scenario if relations severely deteriorated – for instance, by ordering these corporations to show off their companies in Europe.

“Vital information would turn out to be inaccessible, web sites would go darkish, and important state companies like hospital IT methods could be thrown into chaos,” says Robin Berjon, a digital governance specialist who advises EU policymakers.

He believes that issues over a so referred to as US “kill change” needs to be taken severely. “It is arduous to say how a lot hassle we’d be in.”

Microsoft, Google and Amazon all say they provide “sovereign” cloud computing options that safeguard EU shoppers’ information, and would stop such a situation ever occurring. The BBC has contacted the US Treasury division for remark.

In reality, there have all the time been issues concerning the lack of “digital sovereignty” in Europe, the place US corporations not solely dominate the cloud-computing market, but in addition {hardware}, satellite tv for pc web and now synthetic intelligence.

Even the area’s most important cell working methods – Apple and Android – and fee networks – Mastercard and Visa – are American.

These fears turned pressing in Could when it emerged that Karim Khan, the highest prosecutor on the Netherlands-based Worldwide Prison Court docket (ICC), had misplaced entry to his Microsoft Outlook electronic mail account after being sanctioned by the White Home.

The ICC has issued arrest warrants for high Israeli officers, together with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, over their roles within the Israel-Gaza conflict – one thing Mr Trump referred to as “illegitimate”.

Khan has since briefly stepped apart till a sexual misconduct probe in opposition to him is concluded.

Microsoft says that “at no level” did it stop or droop its companies to the ICC, though it was in contact with the ICC “throughout the process that resulted in the disconnection”.

Since then digital sovereignty has shot up the agenda in Brussels, whereas some public our bodies are already looking for alternate options to US suppliers.

However is it reasonable to assume they may wean themselves off US expertise?

Digital sovereignty is loosely outlined as the power of a governing physique to manage the info and expertise methods inside its borders.

One downside confronted by these pursuing it’s the lack of comparable alternate options.

Europe does have its personal suppliers, reminiscent of France’s OVHCloud, or Germany’s Germany’s T-Techniques or Delos, in cloud computing.

However they account for a fraction of the market, and haven’t got the identical scale or vary of capabilities, says Dario Maisto, a senior analyst protecting digital sovereignty at world enterprise consultancy Forrester.

Equally, open-source alternate options can be found for widespread software program packages like Workplace and Home windows, however whereas proponents say they’re extra clear and accessible, none is as complete or well-known.

However whereas shifting to sovereign alternate options would not “occur in a single day”, it is a “fable” to assume it is not doable, says Mr Maisto.

He notes that the German state of Schleswig-Holstein is at the moment within the technique of phasing out Microsoft merchandise like Workplace 365 and Home windows in favour of open-source options reminiscent of LibreOffice and Linux. Denmark’s Ministry for Digitalisation is piloting an identical scheme.

“We typically overvalue the position of proprietary software program in our organisations,” Mr Maisto says, declaring that for key companies like phrase processing and electronic mail, open-source options work simply fantastic.

“The principle causes organisations do not use open supply are a ignorance and misplaced fears about cyber safety,” he provides.

“Our prediction is within the subsequent 5 to 10 years, there will probably be an accelerated shift [to these solutions] due to this wake-up name.”

Benjamin Revcolevschi, boss of OVHCloud, tells the BBC that corporations like his are able to reply the sovereignty wants of private and non-private organisations in Europe.

“Solely European cloud suppliers, whose headquarters are within the EU and with European governance, are capable of supply immunity to non-European legal guidelines, to guard delicate and private information,” he says.

However Microsoft, Amazon and Google say they already supply options that tackle issues about digital sovereignty, options which retailer information on severs within the shoppers’ nation or area, not within the US.

Google tells the BBC that it additionally companions with trusted native EU suppliers like T-Techniques, granting them management over the encryption of consumer information, and giving prospects “a technical veto over their information”. The German Military is one in all its shoppers.

In the meantime, Microsoft president Brad Smith has promised the agency would take authorized motion within the “exceedingly unlikely” occasion the US authorities ordered it to droop companies, and that it might embrace a clause in European contracts to that impact.

“We are going to proceed to search for new methods to make sure the European Fee and our European prospects have the choices and assurances they should function with confidence,” a Microsoft spokesman informed the BBC.

Zach Meyers, from the Brussels-based Centre on Regulation in Europe (CERRE) assume tank, says it would make sense for Europe to develop its personal restricted sovereign cloud to guard vital authorities information.

However he provides that it is unrealistic to attempt to “get Individuals out of the provision chain, or to make sure that there’s Europeans within the provide chain at every level”.

He factors to Gaia X – a scheme launched in 2020 to create a European-based various to massive, centralised cloud platforms, which has confronted vital criticism and delays.

“Loads of these [tech] markets are winner takes all, so when you’re the primary mover it is actually arduous for anybody else to catch up.”

As a substitute, Mr Meyers thinks Europe ought to give attention to areas of expertise the place it would acquire an edge.

“It might be the economic use of AI, as a result of Europe already has a a lot larger, stronger industrial base than the US has,” he says. “Or the following technology of chipmaking tools, as a result of one of many few areas the place Europe has foothold is in photolithography – the machines that make the actually top-end chips.”

So the place does the digital sovereignty agenda go from right here?

Some imagine nothing will change until Europe brings in new rules that power regional organisations and governments to purchase native expertise. However in accordance with Mr Berjon, the EU has been dragging its toes.

“There’s positively political curiosity, however it’s a query of turning it right into a shared technique.”

Matthias Bauer, director on the European Centre for Worldwide Political Financial system, thinks the purpose needs to be build up Europe’s expertise sector so it will possibly compete with the US and China.

In a report on EU competitiveness in 2024, Mario Draghi, former head of the European Central Financial institution, famous Europe is “severely lagging behind” in new applied sciences, and that “solely 4 of the world’s high 50 tech corporations are European”.

“It is at the moment a lot more durable for a tech firm based mostly within the EU to scale throughout the bloc than it might be for a similar firm within the US,” Mr Bauer says.

“You not solely face completely different languages, however completely different contract legislation, labour market legal guidelines, tax legal guidelines, and in addition completely different sector-specific regulation.”

As for the speculation that President Trump would possibly flip a “kill change” and switch off Europe’s web, he is extremely sceptical.

“It will be a practical situation if we have been near a conflict, however I do not see that on the horizon.”

But Mr Maisto says organisations should take the danger severely, nonetheless distant.

“Two years in the past, we did not assume we’d be speaking about these matters in these phrases in 2025. Now organisations wish to prepare for what would possibly occur.”