Retail import volumes to stay down through spring amid tariff uncertainty

Container import volumes at main U.S. ports will stay under year-ago ranges till spring 2026, creating operational challenges for retailers who should steadiness stock administration in opposition to mounting commerce coverage uncertainty. The forecast indicators a protracted adjustment interval for the retail sector following months of strategic cargo acceleration.

Import quantity is forecast to see its first month-over-month achieve in six months throughout January however will proceed declining on an annual foundation till Might, in accordance with the International Port Tracker report launched January 9, 2026, by the Nationwide Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. The projection underscores how commerce coverage shifts ripple by means of provide chain operations for months after implementation.

U.S. ports coated by International Port Tracker dealt with 2.02 million Twenty-Foot Equal Models in November 2025, the most recent month for which last knowledge is offered. That determine marked a 2.3% lower from October and a 6.5% decline yr over yr. One TEU represents one 20-foot container or its equal in delivery capability.

December 2025 numbers haven’t but been reported by ports. International Port Tracker projected the month at 1.99 million TEU, down 6.6% yr over yr. The consecutive month-to-month declines replicate each seasonal patterns and strategic timing choices by retailers responding to commerce coverage developments.

“There must be a quick bump in imports this month forward of Lunar New 12 months manufacturing facility shutdowns in Asia, however we’re in any other case headed into the post-holiday delivery lull that comes annually,” Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Provide Chain and Customs Coverage, stated. “Retailers had a busy vacation season and are assessing what’s forward in 2026 to allow them to maintain provide chains operating easily to make sure customers can discover the merchandise they need at costs they will afford.”

The year-over-year declines stem partly from elevated import ranges in late 2024 when issues over port strikes drove retailers to speed up shipments. Many retailers additionally imported cargo sooner than regular in 2025 to keep away from tariffs, creating synthetic peaks that distort present comparisons. This front-loading habits demonstrates how commerce coverage uncertainty forces firms to prioritize threat mitigation over operational effectivity.

The primary half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% yr over yr. Nonetheless, the total yr 2025 is forecast at 25.4 million TEU, down 0.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024. The distinction between first-half development and full-year decline illustrates the timing shift brought on by preemptive cargo acceleration.

January 2026 quantity is forecast at 2.11 million TEU, representing the primary month-over-month enhance since July 2025. Retailers are bringing in merchandise previous to February’s Lunar New 12 months vacation in Asia when factories sometimes shut down for prolonged durations. Regardless of the month-to-month achieve, January quantity would nonetheless decline 5.3% yr over yr.

February 2026 is forecast at 1.94 million TEU, down 4.6% yr over yr. March initiatives even steeper declines at 1.88 million TEU, down 12.4% in comparison with March 2025. April is forecast at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1% yr over yr. These sustained declines replicate each the post-holiday delivery lull and persevering with adjustment from 2025’s accelerated import patterns.

Might 2026 represents a turning level with forecast quantity of two.07 million TEU, up 6.2% yr over yr. This might mark the primary annual enhance since August 2025, signaling potential normalization of import patterns as retailers alter to the present commerce coverage surroundings.

Gold emphasised that retailers search “extra stability and certainty, particularly relating to tariffs and commerce coverage, in 2026 to assist guarantee higher provide chain operations to fulfill shopper wants.” The emphasis on predictability displays how coverage uncertainty forces firms to take care of greater security inventory ranges and speed up shipments, each of which enhance prices that in the end have an effect on shopper costs.

Ben Hackett, founding father of Hackett Associates, famous that following “persistent uncertainty” from elevated U.S. tariffs in 2025, the impression on cargo imports in 2026 is prone to nonetheless be affected by commerce coverage. The characterization of 2025 as marked by “persistent uncertainty” suggests sustained operational stress fairly than one-time adjustment.

“As 2026 begins, we see a world more and more centered on defending home industries and addressing perceived commerce imbalances,” Hackett stated. “This strategy has raised questions on the way forward for free commerce and worldwide financial cooperation.” The assertion positions present import tendencies inside broader shifts in international commerce structure.

The import quantity knowledge carries important implications for digital advertisers and retailers working e-commerce platforms. Decrease import volumes sometimes correlate with constrained stock choice, doubtlessly affecting product availability for paid search campaigns and sponsored product promoting. Retailers should alter advertising spend primarily based on precise stock positions fairly than very best assortments.

Provide chain constraints created by commerce coverage uncertainty additionally compress planning timelines. Advertisers sometimes construct campaigns round product launches and seasonal promotions months prematurely. When import timing turns into unpredictable, coordinating advertising efforts with product availability turns into considerably extra advanced.

The timing mismatch between promoting commitments and stock arrival can create situations the place paid campaigns drive demand for merchandise not but out there or the place stock arrives with out supporting advertising activation. These operational friction factors enhance buyer acquisition prices and cut back return on advert spend.

Retail media networks, which have grown considerably as promoting channels, rely on product availability to generate income. When import volumes decline, the stock fueling sponsored product placements and class promoting diminishes. This dynamic impacts each retailers working media networks and types shopping for promoting stock on these platforms.

The focus of declines in March and April—historically essential durations for spring stock replenishment—creates specific challenges for seasonal campaigns. Retailers may have to regulate promotional calendars and promoting methods primarily based on cargo arrival forecasts fairly than very best merchandising plans.

Shopper habits responds to each worth indicators and product availability. When tariff-driven value will increase mix with stock constraints, retailers face troublesome choices about pricing technique and promotional depth. These merchant-level choices straight affect the effectiveness of paid promoting campaigns throughout search, social, and retail media channels.

The import knowledge additionally displays broader shopper spending patterns. November and December historically see decrease import volumes as retailers work by means of vacation stock. Nonetheless, the magnitude of year-over-year declines exceeds typical seasonal patterns, suggesting retailers entered the 2025 vacation season with conservative stock positions.

International Port Tracker gives knowledge and forecasts for main U.S. ports together with Los Angeles/Lengthy Seashore, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The geographic protection captures the overwhelming majority of containerized imports getting into the US.

The report is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, which gives skilled consulting, analysis and advisory providers to the worldwide maritime business, authorities businesses and worldwide establishments. This specialised experience permits the forecast to include advanced variables together with manufacturing facility manufacturing schedules, delivery capability, and commerce coverage developments.

Retailers’ strategic response to tariff uncertainty demonstrates how commerce coverage creates cascade results all through the provision chain. When firms can’t reliably predict import prices, they need to both settle for greater threat or incur extra bills for expedited delivery and elevated security inventory. Each approaches cut back profitability and doubtlessly necessitate worth will increase.

The emphasis on stability and predictability in commerce coverage displays operational realities for firms managing international provide chains. Container delivery operates on multi-month lead occasions from order placement to port supply. This prolonged timeline means commerce coverage modifications introduced in the present day have an effect on stock out there three to 6 months later.

Entrance-loading cargo in 2025 to keep away from anticipated tariffs created short-term quantity spikes that now seem as year-over-year declines. This sample illustrates how reactive habits to coverage uncertainty can amplify volatility fairly than easy operations. Retailers choose predictable guidelines they will plan round versus frequent coverage modifications requiring fixed strategic adjustment.

The projection that year-over-year development returns in Might suggests retailers anticipate ample coverage readability by early 2026 to renew regular stock planning. Nonetheless, the forecast might shift if extra commerce coverage modifications emerge throughout the first quarter, doubtlessly extending the interval of conservative stock administration.

For promoting platforms and retail media networks, these provide chain dynamics create income volatility. Decrease stock ranges cut back alternatives for sponsored product placements and class promoting. Manufacturers in search of to launch new merchandise face uncertainty about whether or not supporting stock will arrive on schedule to justify promoting funding.

The retail business’s place because the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting multiple in 4 U.S. jobs—55 million working People—means provide chain disruptions have economy-wide implications. Import quantity declines could sign broader warning about shopper demand and financial circumstances.

Hackett’s commentary about “a world more and more centered on defending home industries and addressing perceived commerce imbalances” positions present import tendencies inside geopolitical shifts. Whether or not commerce coverage stabilizes or continues evolving will considerably have an effect on how retailers handle stock, pricing, and advertising methods all through 2026.

The transient January quantity enhance forward of Lunar New 12 months represents a tactical response to predictable manufacturing facility shutdowns fairly than underlying demand energy. Retailers should steadiness the price of expedited pre-holiday shipments in opposition to the danger of stockouts throughout the weeks when Asian manufacturing pauses.

November and December being “historically sluggish” for imports displays retail business patterns the place fourth-quarter gross sales rely totally on stock already in distribution networks. The post-holiday interval then sees diminished import exercise as retailers assess sell-through charges and plan for the following seasonal cycle.

The 12.4% projected decline for March 2026 represents the steepest year-over-year drop within the forecast interval. This timing coincides with when front-loaded 2025 cargo would have peaked, creating significantly troublesome comparisons. The magnitude suggests retailers considerably accelerated spring stock purchases in 2025 to keep away from tariff publicity.

Import quantity serving as an financial indicator extends past retail to have an effect on port operations, trucking, warehousing, and associated logistics providers. The projected weak point by means of April 2026 implies constrained exercise throughout these sectors, doubtlessly affecting employment and funding choices in transportation infrastructure.

The International Port Tracker’s provision of each historic knowledge and forecasts permits retailers to benchmark their very own import patterns in opposition to business tendencies. Corporations can assess whether or not their quantity modifications align with market-wide patterns or replicate company-specific components akin to market share shifts or class combine evolution.

As retailers “maintain provide chains operating easily,” they need to steadiness a number of competing goals: sustaining product availability, controlling stock carrying prices, managing tariff publicity, and coordinating advertising efforts with precise product positions. Commerce coverage uncertainty makes all these choices harder and costly.

The forecast’s extension by means of Might 2026 gives retailers with a five-month planning horizon, although the projections carry inherent uncertainty given potential coverage modifications. Corporations should develop contingency plans that permit fast adjustment if commerce coverage shifts materially from present expectations.

Timeline

• November 2025: U.S. ports dealt with 2.02 million TEU, down 2.3% month-over-month and down 6.5% year-over-year
• December 2025 (projected): 1.99 million TEU forecast, down 6.6% year-over-year
• First half 2025: Complete quantity reached 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year-over-year
• Full yr 2025 (forecast): 25.4 million TEU anticipated, down 0.4% from 2024’s 25.5 million TEU
• January 9, 2026: Nationwide Retail Federation and Hackett Associates launched International Port Tracker report projecting continued declines
• January 2026 (forecast): 2.11 million TEU anticipated, first month-over-month achieve since July 2025 however down 5.3% year-over-year
• February 2026 (forecast): 1.94 million TEU projected, down 4.6% year-over-year, affected by Lunar New 12 months manufacturing facility shutdowns
• March 2026 (forecast): 1.88 million TEU anticipated, down 12.4% year-over-year, representing steepest projected decline
• April 2026 (forecast): 2.03 million TEU projected, down 8.1% year-over-year
• Might 2026 (forecast): 2.07 million TEU anticipated, up 6.2% year-over-year, marking first annual achieve since August 2025

Abstract

Who: The Nationwide Retail Federation and Hackett Associates issued the forecast, affecting main U.S. retailers, delivery ports, logistics suppliers, and the broader $5.3 trillion retail business that employs 55 million People.

What: Container import volumes at main U.S. ports are projected to stay under year-ago ranges by means of April 2026, with the primary year-over-year achieve not anticipated till Might 2026. November 2025 recorded 2.02 million TEU, down 6.5% yearly, with comparable declines projected by means of spring.

When: The International Port Tracker report was launched January 9, 2026, masking November 2025 precise knowledge and projecting by means of Might 2026. The forecast exhibits January 2026 will see the primary month-over-month enhance since July 2025, although annual comparisons stay unfavorable till Might.

The place: The info covers main U.S. container ports together with Los Angeles/Lengthy Seashore, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Why: 12 months-over-year declines stem from elevated 2024 imports as a result of port strike issues and front-loading of 2025 cargo to keep away from tariffs. Commerce coverage uncertainty has created “persistent uncertainty” in accordance with Hackett Associates, forcing retailers to speed up shipments and alter stock methods. The post-holiday delivery lull combines with these timing distortions to suppress volumes by means of spring 2026. Retailers search larger stability in tariff and commerce coverage to allow extra environment friendly provide chain operations and preserve product availability at inexpensive costs.