Google AI Overviews reduce organic CTR 61%, paid traffic 68%

Natural click-through charges for informational queries that includes Google AI Overviews fell 61% since mid-2024, whereas paid CTRs on those self same queries plunged 68%, in accordance with analysis revealed November 4, 2025, by advertising company Seer Interactive. The study analyzed 3,119 informational queries throughout 42 organizations, spanning 25.1 million natural impressions and 1.1 million paid impressions from June 2024 to September 2025.

In keeping with the analysis, natural CTRs for AI Overviews queries dropped from 1.76% to 0.61%. Paid CTRs fell from 19.7% to six.34%. Even queries with out AI Overviews skilled vital declines, with natural CTRs falling 41% year-over-year to 1.62%.

The findings verify the speculation that AI Overviews considerably have an effect on click-through charges for each natural and paid search, with impression various primarily based on question kind and whether or not manufacturers obtain AI quotation. Manufacturers cited in AI Overviews earned 35% extra natural clicks and 91% extra paid clicks in comparison with these not cited, although researchers acknowledged they can’t definitively show quotation causes increased CTRs.

Paid search sees catastrophic July decline

The paid CTR trajectory revealed a very alarming sample for advertisers working campaigns on informational key phrases the place AI Overviews seem. In keeping with the research, paid CTR skilled dramatic month-over-month decreases, with charges plunging from roughly 11% to three% in a single month throughout July 2025. Whereas there was slight restoration to six.34% by September, paid CTR stays down 68% from the June 2024 baseline.

This July drop raises questions on potential SERP structure modifications which will have pushed ads additional down on queries dominated by AI Overviews. The sample suggests customers have discovered that ads on informational queries not often present the tutorial content material they search.

Tracy McDonald, who authored the Seer Interactive research, noticed that the paid impression pattern of 1.1 million is considerably smaller than the natural pattern of 25.1 million. This displays the fact that informational queries have decrease business intent, and a few purchasers don’t run paid campaigns on these question sorts, representing a limitation for the paid evaluation.

Non-AIO queries declining quicker than anticipated

The analysis challenged earlier assumptions about queries with out AI Overviews serving as protected harbors for site visitors. In keeping with McDonald’s January 2025 evaluation, natural CTR for non-AIO queries gave the impression to be rising, suggesting “untapped alternatives” for entrepreneurs. The prolonged knowledge reveals a special sample.

The complete trajectory for non-AIO queries exhibits June 2024 CTR at 2.72%, a peak in February 2025 at 3.14%, and a September 2025 decline to 1.62%, representing an general 41% lower. Whereas these queries briefly confirmed progress by way of early 2025, they’ve since declined dramatically. They nonetheless outperform AIO queries by 166%, however the pattern suggests broader forces affecting search habits past simply AI Overviews.

McDonald famous this means customers are doubtless looking for solutions in different platforms earlier than turning to Google, together with ChatGPT, Perplexity, social platforms, or going on to trusted manufacturers. Even when AI Overviews don’t dominate search outcomes, conventional natural outcomes battle to keep up historic click-through charges for informational queries.

Historic CTR patterns reveal pre-existing gaps

The analysis revealed that queries at present triggering AI Overviews in September 2025 have constantly proven decrease CTRs than non-AIO queries all through the complete 15-month monitoring interval. In keeping with the information, the June 2024 baseline confirmed queries with out AI Overviews at 2.74% natural CTR, whereas queries with AI Overviews began at 1.76%, a niche of 1.18 proportion factors.

By September 2025, queries with out AI Overviews declined to 1.62% whereas these with AI Overviews fell to 0.61%, sustaining a niche of 1.01 proportion factors. This sample suggests AI Overviews aren’t randomly showing on high-performing queries and subsequently destroying their CTR. As an alternative, they constantly floor on question sorts that had been already producing fewer clicks, most probably informational searches the place customers traditionally discovered solutions with out clicking.

The sample resembles what the trade noticed years in the past with featured snippets, the place sure question sorts naturally generated decrease click on volumes no matter SERP options. McDonald’s methodology categorized queries primarily based on September 2025 AIO presence, evaluating the 15-month CTR trajectory of queries that ultimately confirmed AI Overviews versus people who didn’t. This represents a retrospective cohort evaluation moderately than a month-by-month correlation research.

Quotation benefit turns into extra pronounced

When manufacturers are cited in AI Overviews, natural CTR reaches 0.70% in comparison with 0.52% for non-cited queries in Q3 2025, representing a 35% benefit. The paid CTR hole is much more substantial, with cited manufacturers attaining 7.89% in comparison with 4.14% for non-cited manufacturers, a 91% improve.

In keeping with the research, year-over-year natural CTR declined 49.4% for cited queries in comparison with 65.2% for non-cited queries. Paid CTR year-over-year declines had been extra uniform, with each cited and non-cited queries dropping roughly 33.3%. The quotation benefit persists whilst general CTR expectations deteriorate throughout the board.

McDonald emphasised an vital caveat about causation. “We can’t definitively show that quotation causes increased CTRs,” the research famous. “It is equally potential that manufacturers with stronger authority and better baseline CTRs are merely extra more likely to be cited by Google’s AI.” The constant outperformance of cited queries may replicate underlying model authority and EEAT indicators moderately than having direct causal relationships.

One potential rationalization means that AIO presence, paid CTR, and organic CTR may all reflect underlying brand authority and EEAT indicators moderately than having direct causal relationships. Manufacturers that rank properly, get cited in AI Overviews, and earn excessive CTRs could share widespread traits that Google’s algorithms acknowledge.

Implications for advertising technique

The analysis signifies that conventional KPIs centered on clicks and site visitors require elementary reassessment. Success metrics are shifting from clicks and site visitors to visibility and share of voice, a transition that a number of trade analysts have advocated all through 2025. Earlier research in January 2025 documented similar patterns, exhibiting natural click-through charges for queries that includes AI Overviews dropped from 1.41% to 0.64% year-over-year.

McDonald really helpful that VP and CMO-level advertising leaders deal with AIO citations as a aggressive moat, noting that the CTR increase and authority indicators of AIO quotation symbolize one of many few remaining methods to keep up aggressive separation in search. The research questioned whether or not paying for informational queries nonetheless offers worth at 6.34% CTR for AIO queries in September 2025, down from 19.70% in June 2024.

For search consultants and content material entrepreneurs, the information exhibits no indicators of CTR restoration, with each AIO and non-AIO queries in sustained decline. The research really helpful constructing 2026 technique across the assumption that CTRs for high-funnel queries can be 20-30% decrease than present ranges, assuming the 6-month decline fee continues by way of 2026 with 30% deceleration as ground results emerge.

The analysis instructed utilizing finances from AIO-laden queries to check different promoting platforms and specializing in lower-funnel searches on Google. Whereas natural CTR for non-AIO queries has declined 41% year-over-year, they nonetheless outperform AIO queries by 166%, making them a relative protected haven for sustaining share of voice moderately than pursuing progress.

Trade context and writer considerations

The decline in click-through charges happens amid broader tensions between Google’s synthetic intelligence ambitions and the financial basis of internet publishing. Publishers have reported significant drops in organic traffic since AI Overviews launched, with some instructional websites experiencing decreases of 40% or extra.

Google maintains that AI features help users discover more web content and that clicks from summaries display increased high quality, with better time spent on vacation spot websites. In keeping with Google statements from July 2025 earnings calls, AI Overview reaches 1.5 billion month-to-month customers, with 10% will increase in searches in markets like the US and India.

Nonetheless, research from Ahrefs published in April 2025 discovered that when AI Overviews seem in search outcomes, the primary natural hyperlink loses a median of 34.5% of clicks. Pew Research Center data from July 2025 documented that customers clicked on conventional search outcomes 47% much less ceaselessly when AI summaries seem.

Google Discover has overtaken traditional search as the dominant traffic source for information and media web sites, accounting for two-thirds of Google referrals in accordance with August 2025 analysis. Conventional Google Search site visitors dropped from roughly 16% to 10% of complete referrals throughout the interval when AI Overviews rolled out to greater than 100 international locations.

Knowledge methodology and limitations

Seer Interactive analyzed 3,119 search phrases throughout 42 consumer organizations from June 2024 by way of September 2025. Key phrases from the unique January 2025 evaluation had been excluded in the event that they dropped out of prime 20 rankings, lacked natural or paid knowledge for each month within the interval, or had been not purchasers. Knowledge sources included Google Search Console for natural efficiency, Google Advertisements for paid efficiency, SeerSignals for September 2025 AIO presence, and ZipTie for historic AIO presence.

Queries had been categorized primarily based on September 2025 AIO presence, that means the evaluation in contrast the 15-month CTR trajectory of queries that ultimately confirmed AI Overviews versus people who didn’t. The research didn’t declare AI Overviews had been current for all 15 months. In keeping with the methodology, all CTR percentages symbolize month-to-month averages throughout the question set, with particular person question CTRs various considerably. Normal deviations ranged from 0.8-1.2 proportion factors for natural and 3-5 proportion factors for paid, that means outcomes for particular queries or industries could differ from mixture findings.

The paid impression pattern of 1.1 million is considerably smaller than natural impressions of 25.1 million as a result of informational queries have decrease business intent and a few purchasers don’t run paid campaigns on these question sorts. This represents a limitation for the paid evaluation, with findings directionally constant however having wider confidence intervals than natural outcomes.

What Seer is awaiting 2026

McDonald outlined a number of predictions for monitoring by way of early 2026. The research anticipates paid CTRs on info queries won’t enhance, questioning whether or not the paid CTR drop represents a everlasting structural change in SERP layouts or a brief anomaly that may course-correct. The analysis initiatives CTRs will proceed to say no as a lot as 0.5% by January 2026, watching whether or not 0.6% represents a ground for natural CTR on AIO queries or whether or not declines proceed.

The research expects AI Overviews will unfold to business and transactional queries, elevating questions on how CTR efficiency differs for different search intents. The dataset centered on informational queries, however as AI Overviews unfold to business and transactional searches, related CTR impacts could emerge. McDonald predicted AIO presence for informational queries will improve, with searches that didn’t present an AI Overview in January or September 2025 displaying them by January 2026.

The analysis anticipates non-AIO question CTRs will proceed to say no because of elementary shifts in consumer habits that reach past simply AI Overviews. The 41% decline suggests broader forces at work as customers change how and the place they ask questions, each inside Google and throughout language fashions. McDonald said the crew will examine again on this knowledge in Q1 2026 to see whether or not any of those traits persist.

In keeping with the conclusion, primarily based on 15 months of constant decline throughout almost each metric, the outlook for rebound seems pessimistic. The search panorama has basically modified from 18 months in the past, with no indication that ready for stabilization represents a viable technique for advertising professionals.

Timeline

Abstract

Who: Seer Interactive, a advertising company, analyzed search efficiency throughout 42 consumer organizations. Tracy McDonald authored the analysis analyzing how Google AI Overviews have an effect on manufacturers, publishers, and advertisers depending on search site visitors.

What: Natural click-through charges for informational queries that includes Google AI Overviews fell 61% from 1.76% to 0.61% between June 2024 and September 2025. Paid CTRs plunged 68% from 19.7% to six.34% throughout the identical interval. Even queries with out AI Overviews skilled 41% natural CTR declines. Manufacturers cited in AI Overviews earned 35% extra natural clicks and 91% extra paid clicks in comparison with non-cited manufacturers.

When: The research tracked efficiency from June 2024 by way of September 2025, with outcomes revealed November 4, 2025. The evaluation revealed a very dramatic paid CTR collapse in July 2025, when charges plummeted from 11% to three% earlier than partially recovering to six.34% by September.

The place: The analysis analyzed 3,119 informational queries producing 25.1 million natural impressions and 1.1 million paid impressions throughout Google search outcomes. The findings apply to markets the place Google has deployed AI Overviews, which now attain 1.5 billion month-to-month customers globally.

Why: The findings matter for advertising professionals as a result of they doc elementary shifts in search habits that render conventional traffic-focused KPIs more and more ineffective. Success metrics are evolving from clicks and site visitors towards visibility and share of voice. Advertisers working campaigns on informational key phrases the place AI Overviews seem now seize a fraction of the clicks they acquired 15 months in the past, requiring elementary reassessment of paid search technique and finances allocation. The analysis suggests customers are altering how and the place they ask questions, with implications extending past Google to incorporate ChatGPT, Perplexity, social platforms, and direct model engagement.