{"id":29809,"date":"2023-01-13T00:24:47","date_gmt":"2023-01-13T00:24:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mailinvest.blog\/index.php\/2023\/01\/13\/why-peak-tv-is-about-to-enter-a-bear-market\/"},"modified":"2023-01-13T00:24:47","modified_gmt":"2023-01-13T00:24:47","slug":"why-peak-tv-is-about-to-enter-a-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mailinvest.blog\/index.php\/2023\/01\/13\/why-peak-tv-is-about-to-enter-a-bear-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Peak TV Is About to Enter a Bear Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

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FX chairman of content and productions John Landgraf, who coined the phrase \u201cpeak TV\u201d<\/a> back in 2015, believes the industry has indeed peaked.<\/p>\n

In 2022, Television output increased to 599 scripted series\u2014the most of all time, according to FX\u2019s annual tally. And it\u2019s no longer sustainable.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think we have a strong indication that we\u2019re going to start to see a decline in the beginning of 2023,\u201d Landgraf said during his annual executive session at the 2023 Winter Television Critics Association Press Tour in Pasadena, Calif.<\/p>\n

Last year saw a 7% year-over-year increase in scripted originals, but FX\u2019s research found the number of new series decreased in the second half of the year, dropping by 2%.<\/p>\n

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\u201cIn August [Summer 2022 TCA Press Tour], I said it would be the 2020s you would find the market peak of scripted series TV series, and that is still my bet while noting with humility that I\u2019ve been wrong on this prediction twice before,\u201d Landgraf said.<\/p>\n

For an example of the downward trend, look no further than FX\u2019s programming. <\/p>\n

In 2022, FX had 19 returning programs and six one-off series. In 2023, FX will broadcast 23 series in total. <\/p>\n

Despite having fewer series, it\u2019s a quality-over-quantity story for FX. The company\u2019s 2023 lineup includes Season 2 of The Bear, Season 3 of Reservation Dogs and the limited series Shogun, which will be one of FX\u2019s biggest-scale series yet.<\/p>\n

FX content is safe\u2026 for now<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The network (and its content on Hulu) had one of its best years in 2022, with Welcome to Wrexham becoming the most-watched unscripted series in FX history, and the highly-acclaimed first season of The Bear drawing 140,000 concurrent streams of its eight episodes the morning after its release.<\/p>\n

But Landgraf expects the industry to experience a \u201cnarrowing\u201d of the streaming world, helping explain why streaming services like HBO Max have been yanking licensed and older content<\/a>.<\/p>\n

FX currently doesn\u2019t have \u201cspecific plans\u201d to make any similar moves. Still, Landgraf said the company \u201cwouldn\u2019t rule anything out,\u201d pointing to the development of new technologies that have upended how networks create and distribute programs.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe internet removes constraints that used to exist on volume,\u201d said Landgraf, adding, \u201cYou had a limited amount of shelf space. It\u2019s figuring it out again. You just can\u2019t take this infinite amount of money and dump it on something. It gets stale.\u201d<\/p>\n

Media companies are also experiencing difficulties with user interfaces and discoverability while juggling thousands of pieces of content.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the industry as a whole is going through this reckoning and realizing you can\u2019t simplify as much\u2026 we\u2019re in this period of radical transformation,\u201d Landgraf said.<\/p>\n

Shifting marketing budgets<\/strong><\/h4>\n

As the streaming industry continues to evolve, the way FX and Landgraf market new series has shifted as well.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou obviously can\u2019t afford to make 599 television shows and market them all like The Bear or House of the Dragon,\u201d he said. \u201cOur whole marketing budget has changed.\u201d<\/p>\n

Previously, FX would\u2019ve put 90% of its budget into the premiere of a show, but now less than 50% is focused on the first episode, with Landgraf saying \u201cevery aspect\u201d of the company\u2019s marketing plans had to be restructured.<\/p>\n

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An emphasis on diversity<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Since scripted series may decline in 2023, Landgraf worries that the narrowing of the window could negatively impact diverse voices and storytelling as companies may program for the widest available audience.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you\u2019re just going for the biggest meat of the audience, the majority, you tend to program to white men,\u201d he said, calling scripted programs that appeal to men a boon.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019d like to leave FX and I\u2019d like to leave this industry with [diversity] being normal business,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Landgraf called the last few years of peak TV \u201ca really positive benefit\u201d regarding diverse storytelling.<\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of new people got opportunities in the industry. So then you worry when there\u2019s a narrowing process, who loses opportunity,\u201d Landgraf said. \u201cIs it the last person that got an opportunity, and does that not favor diverse voices?\u201d<\/p>\n

The FX chairman said outlets must decide \u201cpurposefully\u201d to speak to other demographics and praised the DEI work done at Disney, FX\u2019s parent company.<\/p>\n

\u201c[Disney] is doing that everywhere across its enterprise,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s trying to reach everyone in America.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n