{"id":28629,"date":"2023-01-09T11:30:46","date_gmt":"2023-01-09T11:30:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mailinvest.blog\/index.php\/2023\/01\/09\/look-at-the-past-before-you-fear-the-new-year\/"},"modified":"2023-01-09T11:30:46","modified_gmt":"2023-01-09T11:30:46","slug":"look-at-the-past-before-you-fear-the-new-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mailinvest.blog\/index.php\/2023\/01\/09\/look-at-the-past-before-you-fear-the-new-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Look At The Past Before You Fear The New Year"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Hello, my dear fellow search marketer, and welcome to 2023.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s time to make some New Year\u2019s resolutions, or at the very least, be prepared to make some changes for the new year.<\/p>\n

Unlike my New York Jets, there is ample opportunity to drop the crappy \u201cguru\u201d you\u2019ve hired, forecast out a budget (even in a recession), play with a new bid strategy, make memes about Performance Max<\/a>\/GA4<\/a> and give Bing (I still refuse to call it Microsoft Advertising) the fighting chance it deserves.<\/p>\n

Also, don\u2019t forget to migrate your Twitter ad budget to something actually stable.<\/p>\n

So, let\u2019s discuss what you should be doing now, what you went through in 2022, and what you need to do in 2023.<\/p>\n

Think of this as a really nerdy and \u201csnarkastic\u201d visitation of three ghosts.<\/p>\n

What Should You Be Doing Right Now?<\/h2>\n

It\u2019s the beginning of 2023, so you\u2019re running a bit late \u2013 but you can still make up for lost time.<\/p>\n

Forecasting A 2023 Budget<\/h3>\n

You\u2019ve seen how to forecast search budgets year after year: the old \u201cdetermine impression share (IS) lost due to budget and had 3%-5% increase in CPC assuming strategy stays the same\u201d method.<\/p>\n

Then the pandemic came along, and forecasting got a little iffier. Now, that method lacks some weight.<\/p>\n

The reality is, if you keep with that approach, fine, not the end of the world, but understand that cost per click (CPC) growth, especially on brand terms, saw some obscene growth in 2022 (starting around April).<\/p>\n

Why? There are a variety of theories, but for now, let\u2019s just call it \u201cinflation.\u201d<\/p>\n

If you keep the typical approach, expect to add anywhere from 10%-15% on brand CPC growth YoY in Q1 and, likely, more along the lines of 4%-7% growth on non-brand. This comes from our own in-house estimate \u2013 yours should vary.<\/p>\n

Next, the ugly elephant in the room \u2013 Performance Max \u2013 appears. But it gets more complicated if you migrate smart shopping over to Performance Max as well.<\/p>\n

There are two ways to forecast this, and honestly, neither will be all that accurate or insightful \u2013 I apologize in advance.<\/p>\n