{"id":17973,"date":"2022-03-02T06:26:05","date_gmt":"2022-03-02T06:26:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mailinvest.blog\/index.php\/2022\/03\/02\/space-junk-on-5800-mph-collision-course-with-moon\/"},"modified":"2022-03-02T06:26:05","modified_gmt":"2022-03-02T06:26:05","slug":"space-junk-on-5800-mph-collision-course-with-moon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mailinvest.blog\/index.php\/2022\/03\/02\/space-junk-on-5800-mph-collision-course-with-moon\/","title":{"rendered":"Space junk on 5,800-mph collision course with moon"},"content":{"rendered":"

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CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. — The moon is about to get walloped by 3 tons of space junk, a punch that will carve out a crater that could fit several semitractor-trailers.<\/p>\n

The leftover rocket will smash into the far side of the moon at 5,800 mph (9,300 kph) on Friday, away from telescopes\u2019 prying eyes. It may take weeks, even months, to confirm the impact through satellite images.<\/p>\n

It’s been tumbling haphazardly through space, experts believe, since China launched it nearly a decade ago. But Chinese officials are dubious it’s theirs.<\/p>\n

No matter whose it is, scientists expect the object to carve out a hole 33 feet to 66 feet (10 to 20 meters) across and send moon dust flying hundreds of miles (kilometers) across the barren, pockmarked surface.<\/p>\n

Low-orbiting space junk is relatively easy to track. Objects launching deeper into space are unlikely to hit anything and these far-flung pieces are usually soon forgotten, except by a handful of observers who enjoy playing celestial detective on the side.<\/p>\n

SpaceX originally took the rap for the upcoming lunar litter after asteroid tracker Bill Gray identified the collision course in January. He corrected himself a month later, saying the \u201cmystery\u201d object was not a SpaceX Falcon rocket upper stage from the 2015 launch of a deep space climate observatory for NASA.<\/p>\n

Gray said it was likely the third stage of a Chinese rocket that sent a test sample capsule to the moon and back in 2014. But Chinese ministry officials said the upper stage had reentered Earth\u2019s atmosphere and burned up.<\/p>\n

But there were two Chinese missions with similar designations \u2014 the test flight and 2020\u2032s lunar sample return mission \u2014 and U.S. observers believe the two are getting mixed up.<\/p>\n

The U.S. Space Command, which tracks lower space junk, confirmed Tuesday that the Chinese upper stage from the 2014 lunar mission never deorbited, as previously indicated in its database. But it could not confirm the country of origin for the object about to strike the moon.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe focus on objects closer to the Earth,\u201d a spokesperson said in a statement.<\/p>\n

Gray, a mathematician and physicist, said he’s confident now that it’s China’s rocket.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve become a little bit more cautious of such matters,\u201d he said. \u201cBut I really just don\u2019t see any way it could be anything else.\u201d<\/p>\n

Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard and Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics supports Gray\u2019s revised assessment, but notes: \u201cThe effect will be the same. It\u2019ll leave yet another small crater on the moon.”<\/p>\n

The moon already bears countless craters, ranging up to 1,600 miles (2,500 kilometers). With little to no real atmosphere, the moon is defenseless against the constant barrage of meteors and asteroids, and the occasional incoming spacecraft, including a few intentionally crashed for science’s sake. With no weather, there\u2019s no erosion and so impact craters last forever.<\/p>\n

China has a lunar lander on the moon’s far side, but it will be too far away to detect Friday’s impact just north of the equator. NASA\u2019s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will also be out of range. It\u2019s unlikely India\u2019s moon-orbiting Chandrayaan-2 will be passing by then, either.<\/p>\n

\u201cI had been hoping for something (significant) to hit the moon for a long time. Ideally, it would have hit on the near side of the moon at some point where we could actually see it,\u201d Gray said.<\/p>\n

After initially pinning the upcoming strike on Elon Musk\u2019s SpaceX, Gray took another look after an engineer at NASA\u2019s Jet Propulsion Laboratory questioned his claim. Now, he\u2019s \u201cpretty thoroughly persuaded\u201d it’s a Chinese rocket part, based not only on orbital tracking back to its 2014 liftoff, but also data received from its short-lived ham radio experiment.<\/p>\n

JPL\u2019s Center for Near Earth Object Studies endorses Gray\u2019s reassessment. A University of Arizona team also recently identified the Chinese Long March rocket segment from the light reflected off its paint, during telescope observations of the careening cylinder.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s about 40 feet (12 meters) long and 10 feet (3 meters) in diameter, and doing a every two to three minutes.<\/p>\n

Gray said SpaceX never contacted him to challenge his original claim. Neither have the Chinese.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not a SpaceX problem, nor is it a China problem. Nobody is particularly careful about what they do with junk at this sort of orbit,” Gray said.<\/p>\n

Tracking deep space mission leftovers like this is hard, according to McDowell. The moon\u2019s gravity can alter an object\u2019s path during flybys, creating uncertainty. And there’s no readily available database, McDowell noted, aside from the ones \u201ccobbled together\u201d by himself, Gray and a couple others.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are now in an era where many countries and private companies are putting stuff in deep space, so it\u2019s time to start to keep track of it,\u201d McDowell said. “Right now there\u2019s no one, just a few fans in their spare time.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Associated Press video producer Olivia Zhang and video journalist Sam McNeil in Beijing contributed to this report<\/p>\n

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute\u2019s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n